Canelo Alvarez vs. Dimitry Bivol: No way to win?

Particulars: Canelo vs. Bivol is the headline fight set for Saturday, May 7, 2022, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, for Bivol’s WBA strap.  

DAZN, who promised to end PPV, and never charge for premier fights, etc., IS charging its subscribers $59.95.

Total B.S.   

Background: Dimitry Bivol, a skillful light heavyweight,is a man with a problem.

Canelo Alvarez is an outstanding fighter who has shown an incredible ability to adapt and improve. Ringside judges and referees love him.    

For years, any referee’s subtle tricks - early break, washing the mouthpiece, warning the other guy, you name it - go to Alvarez. The same is true for judges but infinitely more so. 

Fighter’s Grades: (Speed, Power, Defense, Reach, Age, Stamina, Experience)

Dimitry Bivol: B B B C+ B- B B (B- 2.9)

Canelo Alvarez: B B+ B C+ B- B A (B 3.0)

Reality check: Canelo Alvarez has outstanding attributes, not least is his ability to evolve and improve. For a slow fighter, his footwork has improved mightly. His chin is solid - hands are not only heavy, but very, very fast. An Alvarez counter shot is cracking. Billy Joe Saunders nailed him with a combo, than a split second later, Canelo countered with a sickening right that broke Saunders orbital bone and ended the fight.

All that aside, when faced with prime and near-prime fighters, Mayweather and the GGG of Golovkin-Alvarez 1 - Canelo struggled. Versus Mayweather, the young Canelo sold a lot of sportswriters (many of whom have no understanding of boxing) that relentless pressure would get it done. The shocked folks over at Ring Magazine (not Floyd’s biggest fans) noted, if Money had put his foot on the gas, he could have stopped Alvarez.  

Legendary Chavez Sr. said in 2013, no Plan B could work for Alvarez, and not now or in the future does Alvarez beat Mayweather. 

Vs. GGG in 2017, Alvarez tested the waters and realized immediately that the near-prime Golovkin was kryptonite.  

So, did Canelo employ the Mexican macho style? No way. Alvarez soon resorted to the oldest trick in the book when confronted with a near-prime Golovkin - pretending to be a great boxer. I was stunned to see him, round after round, dancing - straight backward. Boos rained down from his fans at T-Mobile Arena - who weren’t buying it either. 

Remember, I said Alvarez has improved his footwork greatly, but he still came off a poor second to Golovkin. It was tactical surrender with the judges bailing Canelo out on the cards (as he knew they would) with a horrendous draw.’

Folks- Europeans, Eastern Europeans, etc., see boxing differently. Like Bivol, Euros are not worried about an unthinkable 18-month layoff during their prime years to protect their health. Bivol has disappointed many, including me, by carefully measuring challenges and than calculating, “Okay, I get it. I’ll be this much better and coast to a comfortable victory.”  

Exceptions aside, (Lennox, Fury, Calzaghe, yadda-yadda) if this European outlook bugs you - get over it. Took me years to realize that this is just the way it is and it ain’t changing.  

Bivol will probably be content to use his educated jab, hard right, outstanding fundamentals, and considerable talent. But unless something extraordinary happens, it won’t be enough to get a decision. Bivol probably cannot knock out Alvarez under any circumstance. Will, therefore he sell out - take heavy shots to win so wide a decision, even Ray Charles can see it?

I doubt it.

Fight and prediction: If Bivol is on all-time form, I see him outpointing Alvarez while not selling out at any time. In a bit of a fool’s errand, I can see him controlling the redhead but still losing handily.  

If Alvarez has somehow improved to another level - as he’s done to throughout his career, and Bivol sees this as just another fight, it’s not inconceivable Canelo stops him.  

Both Bivol and Alvarez, particularly Bivol for his height, have stunted reaches by today’s standards. Both will likely resort to boxing, with a stoppage unlikely.

Above all, remember, "Team Alvarez" - for all Canelo’s achievements - would not have taken this fight if they didn’t think they would get their man’s hand raised - either through what Canelo does in the ring, through help outside the ring, or both.

Here we go: Canelo Alvarez (highly controversial) decision 12, Dimitry Bivol.