Josh Taylor vs. Teofimo Lopez - How two years of chaos landed Teofimo Lopez in The Last Chance Saloon

Particulars: June 10, from New York- at The Madison Square Garden Hulu Theater, It’s Teofimo “The Take-over” Lopez, vs. Josh “The Tartan Tornado Taylor,” Jr. Welterweights. ESPN+ (USA) Sky Sports (UK).

Background: I said long ago in 2018, Vasiliy Lomachenko was reaching his sell-by date. No one believed me. After winning 396 amateur fights and enjoying a fantastic, but brief, professional boxing career, I warned if he lost a single reflex – dudes would pounce.

Teofimo Lopez was the ‘pouncer.’ He beat Loma, to the utter shock of the world. Sure, the Ukrainian was injured coming in. Yet, he made the decision to go through with the fight, to his credit. To Lopez’ bigger credit, he won. Close, but without doubt.

Who can forget the mystified look on Teo’s face, as round after round, Lomachenko did almost nothing? Then Loma put it in seventh gear, and at one point, almost kayoed Teo. But in round 12, with everything apparently, on the line…well…Loma was tough. But Teo was tougher. His body shot hurt Lomachenko and seized the round.

After the famous victory, the world was at Teofimo’s command - or so we thought.

Boxing is strange. You don’t ‘play’ boxing as some wise person said. Other sports – even soccer – carry big risks, but boxing is uniquely dangerous. You don’t take tons of time off. You don’t overlook opponents. And, you need some luck, usually.

George Kambosos has never looked better or quicker than when he outfought and outthought, Lopez. I defy anyone to find footage in the two Haney submissions, where Kambosos threw the incredibly quick uppercut on display against Lopez. Teo, through over-confidence, making weight issues, and inactivity, facilitated the Greek-Australian’s perfect storm of defeat. Luck, in the form of a one-off night of brilliance from Kambosos, did the rest.

Since that absolutely shocking defeat, Lopez has looked well beyond “he’s slipping.” He’s looked plain average. Uh-huh, average. He even said to the network cameras as if they were a shrink – “do I still have it?” Dunno, Teo – but if you don’t have it versus an extremely dangerous opponent…like the Stones said: “Who wants Yesterday’s Papers?”

 Almost no one wants them. Teo’s time at the top of boxing will be toast.

Fighters Grades: (Speed, Power, Defense, Reach, Age, Stamina, Experience)

Josh Taylor: B+ B B C C B B Total: B- (2.8)

Teofimo Lopez: A-A- B- C B B B+ Total: B (3.1)

Reality Check: Taylor punked out by not giving Catterall, to whom he surely lost, his rematch. As for his Plantar Fasciitis – I have it. It doesn’t present as Taylor said, it doesn’t generally hit people his age, and arches not surgery, work 95% of the time. The surgery requires no running or jumping for three months. As UK friends pointed out, there he, was jumping around soon after a surgery he clearly didn’t have. Poor Catterall was chewed up by boxing politics.

Taylor, I think, is a bit past the guy who shocked me on my card by drawing with Regis Prograis. And yeah, a narrow victory in his favor was just fine. No robbery in the slightest. Most felt Josh Taylor won; mine was a minority report.

Regis Prograis is an outstanding fighter, but at no point did he look better than Josh. If Taylor can summon the kind of total package that shocked me, the world – but especially, Regis, Lopez is in for a long night.

But can Taylor? He’s looked older, and hinted at retirement – while at the same time saying he is looking forward to a move to 147.

Lopez has serious-serious power that Taylor does not, but in that respect, too, Taylor has surprised me. The man can punch. And hard as Lopez hits, it’s not Ray Robinson, one-punch type of power – though anything can happen at any time in boxing. It’s not unthinkable that a go-for-broke Lopez flies in hands down and catches something nasty that puts his lights out – though I doubt it.

But – does Lopez need to go for broke? Says here, if Taylor has not slipped the tiniest, ‘wee’ bit,’ and has another career night, as against Prograis, yes, Lopez does have to go for broke.

Folks, here’s a look at the reason Teo’s defensive liabilities could kill him vs. Taylor. It’s from the outstanding Boxing Gems YouTube channel. If you don’t have much time, cut to 2:05 on this video’s timeline - and get the bad news for Lopez.

A great thing about Boxing Gem’s analysis is that it helps fans appreciate how complicated boxing really is. It also confirms that while sports clichés suck, ring generalship is a legit term. And Taylor is a real Ring General.

The most important thing I’ve noticed about Taylor’s technique, is his “head slot” movement. Skip to 4:07 to see this phenomenal technique.

Here’s link.

If Taylor out-boxes Lopez, was Teo overrated? A single word that’s damaged so many careers in the last 20 years – and not just in boxing. Since the internet became a thing, everyone, from mouthy teenagers, to the President of this country, says everything is overrated.

Overrated. As if we fans have a tiny fraction of the sublime skills necessary to do anything at this level. The guts? The Ring Generalship? The brains to make adjustments? Another boxing term which is no cliché but very real. That would be- few to none of us have such qualities.

All that aside, if Taylor handily outboxes Lopez, I’m afraid Lopez is overrated.

I’ve always believed Teo’s greatest attribute is absolute confidence. But he’s not 21 and it’s not 2018 with young Teo screaming that Lomachenko is overrated. The script has flipped. Laugh out loud?

Teo is two months away from turning 26. Where does the time go? Covid-19 probably took a serious bite from his time in the sport. But much of the decline is on him. He was a very young phenom - until suddenly he wasn’t. 26 isn’t young in boxing, particularly at lower weights.

Taylor looked past his peak against Catterall, though it was close. Catterall picked his spots and didn’t go looking for the finish to say the least. But he won.

Neither of these dudes has the greatest reach. Neither has had a lot of fights; Taylor’s 19 are very low for a 32-year-old.

Teofimo has to win. Period. Yet he seems to have transitioned from feeling defeat is impossible, to rationalizing that that boxing is unfair and sucks in a lot of ways. He’s decided he’ll fight infrequently, make long dough, and if he occasionally loses, he loses. Not the mindset of champions of the past. A very 2023 kind of outlook.

He’s right, much about boxing does suck, but he can’t use that as a crutch if he’s coming to win.

At times, everyone on earth feels their profession sucks. Trouble is, everyone wants to see top dogs win a fistfight. Few line up to see if a dentist nails a crown or a plumber gets the drain unblocked. Lopez chose probably the toughest job on earth for a guy with a very big mouth.

I don’t like the way Taylor looked vs. Catterall, and bailing on a rematch is telling. He’s been in with someone as good or better than Teo, Prograis, and won, but Prograis isn’t as explosive as Lopez.

Josh Taylor is the absolute end of the line for Lopez. Lose and he’s no longer a marquee star. Two months before his 26th birthday, ’The Take Over’ will be overtaken.

Fight and prediction: Time may have caught up with Taylor. I think after several exciting rounds, a desperate Teo catches Taylor late and hurts him. Taylor may survive but plays safe in the last rounds and loses a decision.

Taylor can blame his age- though at 32, he hasn’t had a lot of fights let’s be honest. The 2019 vintage Taylor that edged Prograis defeats this Lopez and probably any version of Lopez. But that was then.

A very talented 26-year-old’s career is on the line. A Scot can instantly become a Great Scot. With bagpipes, his country’s love, and memories of Sean Connery. Don’t miss this one.

Teofimo Lopez UD Josh Taylor, 12.