Believe the hype - Naoya Inoue vs. Marlon Tapales

Particulars: On Tuesday, Dec. 26^th, 2023, (Boxing Day UK) from the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, it’s the best day-late ever, X-mas gift. Naoya ‘Monster’ Inoue vs. Marlon ‘Nightmare’ Tapales (ESPN +) Unification bout (Super Featherweights). NOTE! This fight starts at 4 a.m. PDT. Consult your directory to find out the start time in your time zone. Brew some coffee and be ready. Or catch a replay, the next morning.

Background: Cool Boy Steph Fulton was picked by some top experts to chill the Inoue ‘Hype,’ train as it was slanderously labeled. Especially by Cool Boy Steph. Steph was undefeated and is a tremendous fighter. He had brief moments, but from the first bell, Fulton couldn’t deal with Inoue’s speed. Inoue could more than deal with his, as well as Fulton’s great Philly boxing skills. Fulton didn’t give up but had to be cautious as he waited for occasional openings. It was academic when Inoue suddenly flattened Cool Boy with that power, twice in Round 8, the second time being at the end of the fight. Fulton amusingly (hey, I’m a ghoul) complained, even as he staggered for a few moments before being hauled off by handlers. Touchingly, the Japanese crowd showered the valiant loser with cheers. Unforgettable.

In the ring, Naoya Inoue is a real-life monster. Outside it, shopping in his preppy clothes and glasses, the friendly monster literally looks like a 20-year-old student or bank manager, about as dangerous as Cheerios. Back in the ring, watching him hit mitts or opponents, you can only swallow - the guy is a terror. Evolution chose this harmless-looking, small man, to carry the power of falling boulders in his fists. 

Even as Inoue’s legend grew, some good pundits, like Tim Bradley, were initially skeptical of the Inoue Story. Bradley was quickly convinced.

I was a believer, asap. Even so, I felt Inoue would never be the same after showing mercy to Nonito Donaire in their first fight. Monster had just staggered the dude formerly from San Leandro, and Donaire was helpless. All Inoue had to do was tap Donaire, and fight over, but he held up.

It may have been great sportsmanship, but it was damn foolish. Donaire recovered and went on to break Inoue’s nose and, worse, fracture his orbital bone. While Inoue won the fight, I thought he’d never be the same. Instead, he proved while his fighting talent seems almost unlimited, his fortitude – which I believe each person, not evolution, determines, is far higher. That said, I still think his injuries will shorten his career – and I don’t care who disagrees.

Fighter’s Grades: (Speed, Power, Defense, Reach, Age, Stamina, Experience)

Nayoya Inoue: A A B+ B B- A B+ (B+ 3.5)

Marlon Tapales: B+B B+ B-B B+B (B 3.1)

Reality Check: All these lower-weight dudes seem to have quirky styles and Tapales, a truly talented fighter, is no exception. The southpaw throws roundhouse 1-2s, but though they’re telegraphed, because of weird angles and timing, they still land. Also, dude has tremendously quick first-punch power from both hands. On film, he’s kayoed dudes with lead-off lefts to the body, as well as rights to the head. Inoue will have to be extremely careful. Also, Tapales has excellent balance and text-book switching from the back foot to the front. He can also punch powerfully off the back foot.

That said, I have to favor the Monster. I noticed Ring Magazine’s experts picked Inoue 19-0 by kayo. Remember, though what Larry Merchant once said – “There ain’t a horse that can’t be rode, ain’t a rider ain’t been throwed.” This is boxing. This isn’t baseball, football, hockey, MMA, or any other sport. This is boxing, right fans? I’d put Tapales 50-50 against Fulton and give him a shot vs. Inoue.

UK broadcasters alone seem to mention that Inoue’s ‘engine,’ his constant activity, could, at age 30, go at any time. He’d still be great, but that Michael Jordan-like energy is the key. He also can’t get banged in the eyes, too much, ever again. Covid and the orbital fracture meant that what Inoue should have been proving at 28, he’s now proving at 30.

Inoue’s reach is substantially better than Tapales’ and if he can avoid being caught by Tapale’s incredibly quick lead punch from either hand, I think he’s simply the best- or second-best fighter on earth, at any weight. Add to that, Inoue’s a tremendous defensive fighter too, as Fulton found out. A little too much for Marlon.

I see Inoue exerting his unique power and speed advantages to win by TKO 8-9. But Tapales from Tubod, Philippines can’t be slept on.

If I’m right and Inoue prevails, let this be a warning: Enjoy the holidays, drive safely, and don’t judge books by covers. Especially if the cover picture looks like a harmless bank teller.