Terence Crawford versus Errol Spence Jr. - Eyes on the Prize

Particulars: On Saturday, July 29, 2023, from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, it’s Errol“The Truth” Spence versus Terrence ‘Bud’ Crawford, for the undisputed Welterweight Crown!

Background: How did we get here? This ‘sudden great news, we’ve been waiting on for years? The announcement these dudes are fighting?

As with everything ‘sudden’ about today’s boxing – it’s often a case of years of blood, sweat, and tears by outstanding fighters. Dudes that worked their tails off in/out of the ring to become overnight sensations. Also, we got here by – by hook or by crook. The machine that is modern boxing.

Just as they say, high prices are here to stay, the boxing blueprint for 2012-2023 or so, seems here to stay. Huge arguments between fighters on social media, long ‘negotiations,’ and strangely pacified fans. Fans from Oakland to Cherryhill, ordinary people with no reason to want see a prime fight delayed, actually repeating the words of promoters “let the fight marinate.”

If beef was like today’s boxing, it would rot, because the marinating often takes years. Unlike Mayweather-Pacquiao, when both – much more so Manny than Floyd, were past their best, Spence vs. Crawford is perhaps just three years late. 

What drove Bud and Spence to the *table is the usual thing – the realization that time was slipping, slipping … and if they don’t get it on soon, the event might literally never happen. It’s called prize fighting. Art for art’s sake – money for God’s sake. Yes, these two dudes love and live to fight. But they don’t do it for free.

So, what wins? 

Spence’s standard fantastic plan? A basic outside game backed by division-high jabbing, leading to the inside where this ghoul punches with more commitment to the gut than few in maybe, history? Inside, baby, where the naturally bigger fighter is at home. For Spence, being on the inside and cracking the rib cage is like a trip to his beloved Cowboy’s Ring of Honor. This guy who loves Greater Dallas so much – I just must believe when he’s denting a dude’s solar plexus, Errol is dreaming of Dallas.

Or Crawford? A smaller guy, equally in love with and representing his Omaha? The switch-hitting genius who starts slow, but figures things out so completely that within 4-5 rounds at the latest, he’s beating the crap out of even very talented opponents?

Fighters Grades: Speed, Power, Defense, Reach, Age, Stamina, Experience

Errol Spence: B+B+B B-B-A A B+ Total: B+ (3.2)

Terence Crawford: A A-A B C A B+ Total: B+ (3.4)

Reality check: Errol Spence hasn’t been or boxed, the same since when, going (150 mph, some say) and

intoxicated, he somersaulted his Ferrari and – in a billion-to-one case – was apparently spared by not wearing a seat belt. 

Maybe - all the changes I perceive in the man and his boxing would have occurred without the accident, but I don’t believe that. 

Boxing was probably for hours or a couple of days in 2019, the least of Errol’s worries. The crash, but for the objective miracle, should have ended his time on earth. 

The high-water mark of Spence’s unusual but potent style, was back in 2017, when, after dropping some rounds to Kell Brook, Spences’ unrelenting body attack, determination, Ring Generalship, and the jab, forced Brook to quit; shockingly taking a knee and being counted out. The jab will be key vs. Crawford, to say the least.

Terence Crawford for me, crazy as it sounds, is a streaking fighter. In his case, the streak has lasted years. 

Crawford, with his incredible talent, is simply, a natural. His vision of punches coming back at him is extraordinary. Everyone has seen him staring intensely at incoming shots. Reminds me of Arnold’s The Terminator where information – speed, distance, which gun to buy, how to drive a clutch- appeared before the cyborg’s eyes. Except in Bud’s case the data he receives is- speed, distance, type of punch and how predictable. And what punch will follow next? I don’t know if Terence has a gun or can drive a stick – but I do know this one-off dude has coupled innate ability with years in the gym. With complete success, he’s mixed highest-leave chess – with violence.

One other thing about Crawford. Boxing is not a tea party. Bud can get dirty and bend the rules. He’s not the only one! In particular, with his freakish strength, he’s not averse to grabbing opponents and pulling them in, then suddenly pounding cuffing shots on their heads with both hands. 

Here’s the outstanding Boxing Gems site, with a look at what has worked over the years – Spence’s typically effective gameplan, and repeatable techniques, and Crawford’s unpredictable mastery. www.youtube.com/watch?v=j15KwnNp86s

Fight and Prediction: No doubt exists in my mind that Spence felt for some time he simply wasn’t sure he could beat Crawford. He said unrelentingly he didn’t need Bud for his legacy. When of course, he absolutely did.

Me? I’ve never seen quite the gigantic size difference some do between the pair and believe Bud hits harder. I was going to place my first ever (small) casino bet at a nearby tribal casino on Crawford. *Then, something and someone reached out to me from the inside of boxing. Maybe I shouldn’t mention this as my word is all I can offer. But I’m mentioning it. This person told me it was suddenly Crawford with doubts. My bet is off and my thoughts on the fight have been shaken, not stirred.

My rational self has amassed an enviable prediction rate over the years at maxboxing.com. This time though

I’m going to go against the brain and with the heart – rarely a good recipe.

My brain tells me that the inside news I got, means – bet the house on Spence. However, my heart tells me

Bud’s jitters will settle down by fight night, and after some tremendously exciting exchanges and dangerous moments, he stops Spence’s jab which is the Texan’s key to the inside. The only key. Just as Tyson Fury, another fighter with stupid-great technique, halted Klitschko’s jab, rode out some big shots, and won. 

Everyone else – bet on my brain and pick Spence.

Bud Crawford, TKO Errol Spence 9-11 with bitter accusations of dirty tactics aiding his victory from Spence.