Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev: Pre-fight analysis with Iceman John Scully

Canelo Alvarez is moving up two weight classes on November second to challenge light heavyweight Sergey Kovalev.

The fight takes place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, and a win over Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KO’s) would make Canelo (52-1-2, 35 KO’s) a four-division world champion. It’s an intriguing match up that has the boxing world wondering about all facets of the fight- the weight, and how each fighter may utilize their skill set to their best advantage. Iceman John Scully, fight historian and former world title challenger is also an interested observer of this fight, and provides an expert analysis.

How much will size matter when Canelo and Kovalev face off? Is jumping two weight classes too much for Canelo? Not so much anymore, Scully believes. “Normally, in general terms I would say, yes, this is too much of a step up in size and weight for Canelo,” Scully said, “but the fact is that they are doing it and they must see something in the equation that gives them confidence.”

Aside from confidence in the fighters, Scully thinks boxing has evolved enough that this bout is hardly far-fetched. “I also believe that the boxing world has definitely turned a huge corner over the last 15 years or so,” he said. “Long gone are the days where the old axiom, "A good big man always defeats a good little man" rarely comes into play anymore on any kind of consistent basis.

Good smaller men have regularly been defeating good bigger men for well over thirty years now.”

What Canelo may lack in size against Kovalev he has other elements that could lead him to victory, Scully noted. “From my view I would say that Canelo needs to execute that brilliant head movement and counter punching he’s been showing off over his last few fights,” he explained, and continued. “For the most part, the times a much smaller man has moved up and dethroned a much bigger world class opponent have come when the bigger man simply had trouble finding his opponent.” Historically fighters with a size deficit have proved victorious, and Scully provided those examples. “From Pacman and Oscar to Roy Jones and John Ruiz all the way back to Michael Spinks and Larry Holmes,” he said, “the man giving up the weight used his defensive abilities and his edge in hand speed to confuse and negate the bigger opponents size advantage.”

While Canelo is utilizing his speed, defense and counter punching, Kovalev will need to have a better plan than trying to bully his way to a win. “Sergey must use that great jab of his to be effective in this fight and he’s got to double and triple it up, too. He absolutely cannot be predictable and allow Canelo to get into a smooth rhythm,” he advised or he’s on the way to losing. “If he thinks he is simply going to go in there and use his size and strength advantage without a real plan behind it,” Scully said, “he may be in for a long, long night.”

Closing the distance with steady jabs is a must, and Scully detailed how that will be effective. “When he gets close after using the jabs to get there he’s got to get physical with the smaller man and not allow him to escape close warfare unscathed,” he said, and that will require non stop aggression. “He’s got to do physical damage every time they get close, whether it be with punches or simply leaning on Canelo and forcing him to exert energy trying to match strength with him whenever possible.”

Fight night will bring some interesting drama as the evening plays out. “I think Canelo will definitely try and not be there to be hit or to get smothered,” Scully said, and outlined how Canelo will make that work. “He will use his legs and sharp angles to toss out some rapid-fire combinations before escaping off to the sides of Sergey.” As for Kovalev, it’s Scully’s opinion Kovalev will be looking for ways to keep Canelo off his game. “I’ll assume that Krusher will be coming in behind an active and strong jab, looking to impose himself on Saul,” he said, which could create some tense moments. “I would think early on it will be more suspenseful than exciting as Canelo looks like find his rhythm and get into a groove while Kovalev attempts to stop that from happening,” he said, and estimates Canelo will be the one to start the fireworks. “I suspect that at some point the real fight will start when Canelo starts landing some good shots and bravely, if not foolishly, tries to land many more.”

Canelo’s aggression may only last for so long before Kovalev’s ring IQ kicks in, and Scully believes, he begins to figure him out. “Until Kovalev adapts to the speed and the size difference he may look relatively clumsy in there,” he said, and warned things could be rough for Canelo. “Sooner or later, though, he will get into his own rhythm and land something significant. Then the real fight will start.”

Making a prediction for Canelo/Kovalev wasn’t that easy for Scully. “This is a fight that has me greatly conflicted in terms of picking a winner and let’s just say I wouldn’t feel comfortable wagering more than a few dollars on it,” he admitted.

"I feel like it is likely either going to come down to one of two scenarios,” he said, and explained. “My first thought was that Canelo has simply bitten off more than he can chew and Sergey’s size advantage as well as his talent and skills gradually overcome a rocky start and he takes over down the stretch and is simply too strong and underrated for Canelo to actually defeat.”

Then he presented his second scenario, which revealed the deciding factor. “Ultimately, though,” Scully said, “I have embraced the idea that Canelo has improved so much over these last couple of years and his boxing skills and abilities, as well as his confidence, are actually now at such a high level that he possesses the skills, the mental strength and the discipline to fight an almost flawless fight against the bigger man and come away with a close but clear decision over 12 rounds.”