30 days out: 'Don't look down' Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury 2

Particulars: On Feb. 22, it’s Tyson “Gypsy King” Fury, lineal heavyweight champion of the world, versus WBC titleholder Deontay “Bronze Bomber” Wilder, the “world’s hardest puncher” for a “part” of the heavyweight championship.

Background: The heavyweight champion was not only once- far the most important dude in sports, but in some cases (Joe Louis, Muhammad Ali) one of the more important people in the world. This fight will elevate one of these two gentlemen, sort of, to that standing. There’s always Joshua, but after his shocking loss, most- but not all pundits see the winner of Fury-Wilder as the man. If it’s Fury, he’s already the ‘lineal’ champion. If it’s Wilder, it’s another proof of his not unreasonable claim for being the hardest hitting human on the face of the earth – perhaps ever.

After an unsatisfactory draw last year, these two will rematch to see who really is the best. First time round, both were on the verge of unconsciousness. Fury’s rise from the canvass was far north of amazing. After he rose, Fury immediately had Wilder in terrible trouble. I feel Wilder’s holding – and there’s no Anaconda in South America that grips harder, saved him from certain knockout. Most- but not all, pundits, feel Fury narrowly but clearly won the fight despite suffering two knockdowns. Wilder’s abject dejection at the final bell was certainly that of a losing fighter.

For those too young to remember, Wiley Coyote was a cartoon character who chased the ‘Roadrunner,’ hoping to kill and eat him. The coyote would finally catch up to the speedy bird but then fall off a cliff. Wiley Coyote would then walk on air in good shape- until he looked down. Then he’d fall to the canyon floor.

Fury-Wider II is fought on the same terms-on the edge of a cliff. If Fury in any way fears being clipped with Wilder’s right, he’s going to be a puff of dust at the bottom of a cliff. If Wilder is comprehensively out-boxed in every round and can’t land the right, he’s hitting bottom. I can’t be clearer.

Fighter’s Grades: (Speed, Power, Defense, Reach, Age, Stamina, Experience)

Tyson Fury: A B B+ A B A A (Average of all) B+ (3.6)

Deontay Wilder: A A C A C+ B- B+ (Average of all) B (3.2)

Reality Check: Fury may have had no leverage over the timing of the first fight with Wilder. Wilder’s Team seemed to have pulled what Alvarez’s team pulled on Kovalev – give a guy a deal with the devil: agree to terrible terms or no fight. In Fury’s case – the guy was little removed from attempting - no hyperbole – suicide by sports car. He looked shaky and rusty and about 75% of capabilities. The Fury that befuddled Klitschko may well have stopped Wilder and certainly would have won a decision. But that was then…

Deontay Wilder is NOT responsible for the politricks of boxing. Don’t blame poor Deontay for his team’s insistence that Fury - months removed from weighing 400 pounds and attempting suicide, fight on their terms. Such is boxing!

Throughout his entire pro career, Deontay Wilder’s Team has been allowed to apply what looks like a good ounce of Vaseline on his face between rounds. This is not only illegal, but means his brain trust is terrified of bruising and swelling. He also holds illegally every time he’s in a difficult spot. To be fair, that isn’t often. Wilder’s holding – if allowed - could well spell the difference between victory and defeat. Fury too, is no paragon. Who can forget his holding with his left and then knocking out with his right of Steve Cunningham–blatantly illegal.

Tyson Fury has far more talents as a fighter than Wilder, who has a jab and that world-beating right and little else. His team may have made him, in the gym, a complete boxer as they claim – but there’s not been a jot of evidence of it during his fights. Fury has all the advantages except mental, and he had that advantage until he was knocked down, devastatingly, in the final round of the first bout, leading to a disputed draw. At age 34, there is not a single thing Wilder’s Team can do to help him overcome Fury’s boxing skills, outside of rough stuff. Team Wilder can only hope and pray for that huge right. And there is no one really-besides Fury, who can restore him to that night in Düsseldorf when he willed himself to victory over Klitschko, a guy that is certainly better than Wilder.

Team Wilder likes to say you have to be perfect to beat him, whereas he, Wilder doesn’t have to be. Could be! But - that is also down to today’s heavyweight scene. There isn’t the heavyweight talent there was in other eras. If Fury or Wilder took on prime Lennox Lewis, as one example only, it is they who would need to be perfect, and it almost certainly wouldn’t be enough.

At this level, the mental game is duh, critical. Wilder and Co. are acutely aware of the ‘groove,’ that is, believing in Deontay’s invincibility. Mike Tyson was mentally undefeatable until he wasn’t. Same with Ali – though that champ got his groove back, as did Lennox Lewis. Same with Foreman. For every heavyweight not named, Ali, Lewis, Foreman, a loss of groove is permanent. You may still win, but you’ll never again feel invincible. You’re just punches away from hitting bottom.

As stated above: Leaving out outrageous judging and crooked referees, restricting things just to Fury and Wilder, the fight hinges on two things: Can Fury overcome mentally, his knockdown and questionable draw? If not, he’ll probably be stopped by the Wilder right. Can Wilder win a boxing match if his big right doesn’t land?

If Fury is knocked out, he’ll retire. If Wilder loses, especially at his advanced age, his aura of invincibility will be permanently dented, and his career significantly derailed. If either wins legitimately, no politricks, there will NEVER be the third fight that they’ve already agreed.

Fight and prediction: No prediction- too close to call and must see viewing.

One of these guys is going to realize he’s walking on air and look down. One of these cats is hitting the canyon floor. Unlike Wylie Coyote, who, despite his injuries was in good shape for the next episode-in the case of Tyson and Deontay, the loser’s career will never really get up.