Even the heartiest of man have their limits and Johnson reached his in the moments after he lost a razor-thin decision to Dawson in April 2008. Maybe it was the fact that it took place in his home area of Tampa or perhaps it was the sheer accumulation of past disappointments. Whatever the cause, Johnson needed to vent.
"I can not believe at my age at 39 they would rip me off like this for a young and talented young guy who has the world in his hands in the future," Johnson told Showtime’s Karen Bryant, his voice cracking with emotion. "I work hard, and I win the fight and I deserve it. I don’t understand how people find it in their heart to do what they did to me time and time again. I love people and I continue to put trust in people and they continue to let me down."
Although Johnson lost the decision, the combination of his effort inside the ropes and his impassioned post-fight remarks won him near-unanimous sympathy among fans and media. That, in turn, has powered the appeal of Saturday’s rematch: Will Johnson be able to summon one more great effort or will Dawson once and for all stamp himself as the superior fighter?
While Johnson may be the sentimental favorite, there is also much to like about Dawson. First, "Bad Chad" is quite good; this natural right-hander turned southpaw may well be boxing’s best combination puncher. Unlike most fighters whose bursts last two or three punches at most, Dawson throws up to a dozen blows at a time. And these aren’t simplistically repetitive one-twos but rather bouquets of hooks, crosses and uppercuts that target both head and body in unpredictable sequences. Few fighters are defensively skilled enough to handle such a dizzying array of blows and thus they are largely responsible for Dawson’s 17 knockouts in his unblemished 28-fight career.
Second, Dawson is 27 years old and in his physical prime – a rarity in a historically elderly division. On 10 occasions a man past the age of 35 has captured at least one version of the light heavyweight title and many of today’s best known contenders are 30 or older. Recently crowned IBF champ Tavoris Cloud is also 27 and while he impressively sent Clinton Woods into retirement he has only begun his championship journey while Dawson is about to engage in his seventh world title fight.
Finally, Dawson doesn’t put much stock in Alphabet belts. He would rather tackle the most challenging opponents for the most money instead of engaging in a string of low-profile mis-mandatories. He dropped the WBC belt to fight Antonio Tarver for his IBF title and he chose to fight Johnson again for an "interim" WBC belt rather than defend his IBF strap against the talented but still-obscure Cloud. Yes, it took 19 months and plenty of public pressure to make Saturday’s fight a reality but give Dawson credit, he did accept a rematch with the man who gave him his toughest fight – and that’s something many fighters aren’t willing to do.
Each man has objectives beyond the "interim" belt at stake. For Johnson the goals are threefold. The first is history, for if "The Road Warrior" wins he will become the oldest man to capture a version of the light heavyweight title. This may also enhance his chances of eventually being enshrined in the International Boxing Hall of Fame, for his candidacy (in my eyes at least) falls short of the mark. The second goal is to remain at the highest levels of the sport – and continue to have access to the paydays that come with that status. While Johnson had hungered for this second act, a victory over "Bad Chad" would give him the ammunition to seek out the two other rematches he wants even more. Those are with Bernard Hopkins, who stopped a green and undefeated Johnson (impossible as that is to imagine now) in 1997 and Roy Jones, who Johnson knocked out cold to help him win Ring’s 2004 Fighter of the Year award.
The final goal is the most deliciously satisfying of them all – revenge and vindication. Johnson – along with many others – strongly believes he was badder than "Bad Chad" when they fought 19 months ago. I scored the fight 114-114 but only after giving all three of the swing rounds to Johnson. But many others believe Johnson was robbed because he rocked Dawson several times and produced the far stronger finish. Perceptions, especially the most strongly held ones, eventually become reality.
Dawson also has three goals beyond simple victory. The first is exorcising the ghosts of Johnson’s success in the first fight and replacing them with an imprint of dominance over his most experienced and challenging rival. Second, such a victory would establish him as the standard by which all of today’s light heavyweights will be measured. Finally, an impressive showing could vault him into more pound-for-pound lists and lay the groundwork for even more meaningful fights down the road. Trainer Eddie Mustafa Muhammad mentioned Tomasz Adamek and the winner of Bernard Hopkins-Roy Jones (should it come off) as potential foes. Should Dawson knock off Johnson in good style, a case could be made that he should be favored to win each of those fights.
So who will win Saturday? I approach this fight with my usual head-versus-heart conflict. I have always had a soft spot for guys like Johnson – long-suffering campaigners that overcome adversity through steadiness, willpower and underrated talent. His volume punching attack, relentless pressure and iron chin not only presented physical problems for Dawson but also psychological ones because Johnson never showed any signs of duress in the face of "Bad Chad’s" talent. That is greatly unsettling to someone who is accustomed to dazzling his opponents.
Also, Dawson has a history of late-round fades in contests he was otherwise dominating. A 10th round knockdown gave Adamek hope that he could reverse nine rounds of drubbing in one fell swoop and the same thing nearly happened in the final two rounds of the first Tarver fight and the last three of the first Johnson bout. Finally, Johnson showed he had enough kick in his right to hurt Dawson multiple times while Dawson was unable to reciprocate. Trainer Orlando Cuellar told me last week that Saturday’s fight will be a "night in hell" for Dawson because his man, knowing this could be his last chance at the brass ring, will go full speed ahead from first bell to last. Anyone who has followed Johnson the last several years knows of his nearly limitless reserves of stamina so Cuellar’s declaration is within the realm of possibility.
Despite all that, I will choose the younger man. When analyzing rematches I try to determine which man is most capable of improving his performance and in this case it is Dawson. The blueprint for beating Johnson Saturday can be seen in rounds seven through nine of the first match when Dawson utilized side-to-side movement and long-armed punches to keep Johnson at bay. During those segments Johnson could do little more than stalk and swing while Dawson slid and scored. Johnson’s most effective rounds came only after Dawson got off his bicycle and exchanged power shots on the inside. In short, when Dawson fights his fight he wins while Johnson’s success rests on what Dawson allows him to do. With Mustafa Muhammad having Dawson fight 12 four-minute rounds with 30 seconds’ rest against a rotation of fresh sparring partners, Dawson should have a big enough gas tank to prevail by unanimous decision.
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Interest in the Cotto-Pacquiao superfight is heating up, as Mail Pouch letter indicates:
Hi Lee, How are you?
After finishing watching Pacquiao vs. Cotto 24/7 Episode 1, I was shocked to learn that the Pacquiao camp indeed has troubles.
First there was the scuffle between Alex Koncz and one of the cornermen but the thing that hit me was Roach desperately trying to convince Pacquiao to leave Baguio. Looks like Roach is sick and tired about his pupil taking the situation and fight so lightly while Cotto exudes confidence by saying that he’s convinced that he’ll emerge the winner on November 14. What’s your view, Lee?
Augie
Freddie never wanted Manny to train in the Philippines – ever – because why add the distractions of home on top of the ones that are there already? The monsoons certainly didn’t help matters either because it must have been extremely difficult for Pacquiao to focus while so many of his people were suffering. Despite the multiplicity of issues, Roach told me that the four weeks in Baguio were productive and that Pacquiao was "on fire" in his workouts. The biggest troubles in terms of focus came during the five days in Manila where Pacquiao was besieged by politicians and other well-wishers, but now that they’re back in America it’s full steam ahead.
Team Pacquiao was forced to conduct the first half of their camp outside the U.S. because the Pac-Man was nearing his limit on the number of days he can spend in America before our punitive tax rates kick in. That would have been a big chunk of change for Manny and he acted accordingly. For those who doubt in the economic principle of "dynamic scoring," people can and do change their behavior based on the prospect of higher taxes.
The cynic in me says that while the respective teams give 24/7 plenty of access, the camps still show what they want to show. The point of 24/7 is to sell the fight and build suspense, and what better way to do that than to have the underdog Cotto exude confidence and the favorite Pacquiao endure chaos? I think that if the disputes in Pacquiao’s camp were that dramatic they wouldn’t have allowed HBO’s cameras to show it. Moreover, if HBO did stray beyond the bounds access would be cut off in the future. In short, while what was portrayed was real, it also was good theater and smart business. As for the dispute between Koncz and Alex Ariza, it has been settled – Ariza will be in the corner just as he had been in the last two fights.
It’s a good sign for Cotto that he looks fit and that he didn’t let his weight get out of control between fights. I still think the tainted Margarito fight took something out of him he can never get back. Despite beating Michael Jennings and Joshua Clottey he didn’t look like the same Cotto. Not only does he have lots of ring mileage he now cuts easily and in Pacquiao he has to deal with a lightning fast southpaw who can dart in, out and to the side while throwing odd-angled punches that rip scar tissue and elude opponents’ vision.
Roach has told several members of the press that a first-round knockout for Pacquiao is possible. One could easily dismiss such talk from most trainers but not Roach – he knows what he’s talking about. He pointed out that Cotto has been rattled seven times in the early rounds and he feels Pacquiao has the speed, angles and footwork to exploit all openings. If Cotto is weakened by getting down to 145 as De la Hoya had been, an early ending is possible. After all, Hatton looked like a skeleton at the weigh-in and a fresh, strong Pacquiao knocked him unconscious in two rounds. I don’t see that happening here. Cotto made 146 for the Clottey fight and he had enough of a finishing kick to pull out a very close fight despite suffering a 22-stitch cut early in the contest. I see an exciting and physically demanding fight in which Pacquiao’s speed will be the ultimate difference. I like Pacquiao by decision.
