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The ESPN2 Friday Night Fights TV Cheat Sheet- Feb. 10, 2012
The man putting in the most work leading up to tonight’s “Friday Night Fights” show might be matchmaker Ron Katz, who scrambled all week to find an opponent for main event attraction Demetrius Andrade. First, the flu took out scheduled opponent Derek Ennis. Former Olympian Terrance Cauthen was brought in to replace Ennis but he accepted a bigger payday to appear on the “ShoBox” card next week. That sent Katz to the phones again, calling gyms nationwide, and his last-minute opponent merry-go-round landed on veteran world title challenger Angel Hernandez. How Andrade will mentally deal with three opponents in three days is anyone’s guess but, given his talent and recent progression, it should not be an unsolvable puzzle for him. Sometimes fate creates unexpectedly compelling fights but the jury remains out on this patchwork main event.
At the Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, CT
(ESPN2) Demetrius Andrade (15-0) vs. Angel Hernandez (30-10)
(ESPN2) Raymond Serrano (17-0) vs. Kenny Abril (11-4-1)
Kenny Abril – As a rule, slickish southpaws should be avoided and Abril, despite an ordinary record and lack of power (35% kayo ratio), fits that mold. The upstate New York product did well matriculating through the competitive amateur scene, starting to box at age seven and registering a reported record of 110-22. Abril did well to win a state Silver and Golden Gloves title but never advanced beyond regional successes to national honors. Quick fists and making use of tricky angles is Abril’s forte, always trying to create an opening through lateral movement and good feints. Has used his combination of speed and power to knock down opponents but lacks the strength and killer instinct to put away experienced foes. Abril will not reach his potential until he becomes more active, only fighting once in 2011 (a six-round loss to Cuban prospect Yordenis Ugas) and 2009, and just twice in 2010. In the Ugas fight, showed tremendous conditioning, coming back from a bodyshot knockdown early to take the final two rounds. In general, Abril does his best work late in fights. Lost a duel with former prospect Lanardo Tyner as well, unable to avoid his rushes and leaving judges unimpressed with a retreating nature in the face of Tyner’s aggression. Stays active in the gym and on weight, never more than six pounds removed from debut weight, putting in quality rounds as a sparring partner of Miguel Cotto. Enters this fight off an eight-month hiatus and, at age 27, is in his physical prime, riding a solid streak of performances that saw him go 6-1. Abril has a good chin and was on his feet at time of lone stoppage to hard-edged trial horse Doel Carrasquillo, improving on defense with every fight. In a couple of fights, head clashes have been an issue, with his darting style and rapid movements leading to accidental butts. Only beaten ordinary foes and, given Abril’s style and amateur experience, should not have lost to journeymen Derrick Moon and Carrasquillo. It seems Abril does not have that extra gear to defeat above-average boxers, unable to find a winning formula against foes who are his equal in speed or ring reflexes.
Raymond Serrano – Another quality product of the tough Philadelphia gym system, graduating from those rings to prospect and sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao. The youngster has his sights set far beyond being a world-class sparring partner. At 22, Serrano has time to develop into a contender and took the right step of hiring trainer Danny Davis (who studied under Naazim Richardson) to supplement his father’s guidance in the corner. One reason Serrano was selected as a Pacquiao sparring partner is his upper-body strength and he goes to the body with a scything left hook to the ribs. Boxing since age eight, Serrano was a solid amateur (won a National and World Junior Olympics and bronze at the World Cadet Championships), registering over a hundred wins and victories for the American national team. Has made a good impression with his attacking style but other than Jay Krupp and Ayi Bruce, his opposition has not been good enough to bring out the best in Serrano. Best win was an eight-round decision over awkward Daniel Sostre, also on ESPN, outworking Sostre to the body and landing the cleaner blows. Can get carried away in fights; against Krupp was overanxious after knocking him down in the first and headhunting too much. Serrano showed mental toughness, coming back from a cut and first-round knockdown against Anthony Bowman, knocking him down in the next round to win a six-round decision. Serrano is still not fully matured, in terms of power, and will add pop once he gets more comfortable with the pro game, switching from defense to offense more fluidly. Will never be a knockout machine but dedication to volume punching will up his kayo ratio from the ordinary 47% it currently stands at. Best part of Serrano’s game is cutting off escape paths with his feet and working crippling body shots. Lived in Philadelphia his entire life but moved his training camp to his family’s native country of Puerto Rico two fights ago, training at the Wilfredo Gomez Boxing Gym. Came under the watchful eye of trainer Felix Pintor, known for his work with smooth-boxing, former champion Ivan Calderon, while there. Needs to make the most of this television appearance since Serrano’s previous televised bouts were efficient but uninspired, lacking excitement he exuded in earlier wins. A good prospect who has had the advantage of growing up around the sport and in one of America’s hotbeds of boxing.
Verdict – I see a one-sided victory for Serrano, whose all-around ability and offensive mindset will make the judges look at him vice Abril for 90% of the fight. Abril allows opponents to take the initiative and with Serrano’s body attack and superior hand speed, Abril will be forced into a shell. Abril will not find counter opportunities with his back to the ropes or on his back foot. The straight punches and direct lines of Serrano cut Abril’s reaction time, making him ineffective and often swinging at air. Abril could be a problem late, as he is fit and times his punches better as the rounds wear on, but can’t do enough to overcome early deficit, losing 97-93 on all cards.
Angel Hernandez – Chicago resident was born in Mexico, bringing with him that straight-ahead aggression Mexican fighters have earned a deserved reputation for over generations. Came to America at age 17, finding his way to Sam Colonna’s famed Windy City Boxing Gym (27-3 in the amateurs, winning a Chicago Golden Gloves title). By 21, gained a following with his bullish style. “Toro” nickname is apt for the stout brawler who stands 5’8” with a doughy appearance and a lack of muscle definition that reveals his blue-collar roots and lack of zip. Overall lack of size forces Hernandez to rely on a high work rate and fall back on a willingness to absorb punches to land his own in return. Absence of a snapping jab hurts Hernandez, failing to hide otherwise competent and straight punches. Is calm in the ring, rarely overreaching with a punch or reacting negatively to an opponent’s blows. The one exception was his last fight, 11 months ago, when Hernandez was disqualified for fighting after the bell. Faced quality southpaws before with Winky Wright in 2003 and defeated lefty James McGirt Jr. in a close, back-and-forth affair in 2009. Hernandez does his best work on the inside, putting his forehead on an opponent’s chest and drilling body shots with both hands before launching crisp uppercuts to break up that tendency. Lacks lateral movement to remain inside or force opponents to stay in front of him where his stout body can wear on them. From the outside, a straight counter right is effective but again, Hernandez needs the opponent’s cooperation lacking the blinding jab to conceal punches. Throws every punch well but lacks speed and offensive imagination to make them more effective. Only stopped twice, Hernandez keeps his hands a bit low on defense but raises them when an opponent is within reach or backing up to reestablish position. Not particularly active, Hernandez is 6-8 since 2002 (facing solid opposition like Kassim Ouma, Peter Manfredo Jr. and Antwun Echols) and enters this fight with three losses in a row. Given Hernandez’s past comments about making weight, shape should be a concern, since his training could be devoted to cutting weight instead of strategic preparations.
Demetrius Andrade - Blue-chip New England prospect was a 2008 Olympian, nurtured and educated in the finer points of pugilism since age six. The consensus opinion was that Andrade had the best pro potential from that Olympic team but has since been overtaken by Gary Russell Jr. and perhaps Shawn Estrada. The southpaw was a disappointment in the Olympics, losing controversially (11-9) in the third round to two-time bronze medalist Kim Jung-Joo of South Korea. However, Andrade did win the 2007 World Amateur Boxing Championships and nearly every national amateur tourney in an unpaid career, spanning nearly 300 bouts with only a handful of losses. A two-time U.S. National champion and Golden Gloves champion, Andrade holds victories over Daniel Jacobs and current WBA world junior middleweight titlist Austin Trout. Twice defeated prospect Fernando Guerrero and German prospect Jack Culcay as well. Is a still a physically maturing 23-year-old junior middleweight but carried the punching power from his amateur welterweight days up to 154 pounds. Andrade’s 67% kayo ratio, stopping 10 of 15 foes, is based on speed, accuracy and punch selection instead of brute force. However, was decidedly weak until his last two fights (Grady Brewer and Saul Duran), considering Andrade’s pedigree. There is also a concern that Andrade is not developing optimally, continuing to use his father and unheralded David Keefe as trainers without seeking outside guidance. Aside from that, Andrade has all the tools in his bag to develop into a world titlist. When in rhythm and feeling comfortable, snaps off a piston-like jab and can switch from southpaw to orthodox stance in an instant. In that sense, Andrade is like his boxing hero, Roy Jones Jr. and carries the kinds of reflexes and ring intuition to get away with mistakes for now. A major criticism has been consistency because Andrade only shows his terrific skills in spurts, pointing to either a lack of mental poise or boredom with the opposition. In every outing, sharp footwork has gotten and kept Andrade in punching range but he did not exploit it with combinations or aggression. Andrade seems accepting of the easy connect when more pressure could open up an opponent for the stoppage. At 6’1”, Andrade uses his size well on defense, employing long steps to get out of range with one fluid motion, leaving opponents reaching and off-balance. Andrade is a bright and likable kid but like Andre Ward early in his career, mediocre opposition and lack of fire has fans viewing him as passionless.
Verdict – Andrade has bored TV audiences in the way Andre Ward did early in his career, so there is hope that this is just a bad phase for Andrade and us. The hometown kid sports all the advantages but one: experience. That edge for Hernandez will be overcome by Andrade’s exceptional athleticism, size and superior reflexes. Simply put, Andrade’s physical skills allow him to get away with mistakes against a slow and plodding Hernandez. Andrade stays on the outside and catches Hernandez on the way in consistently and as the rounds progress, I hope Andrade comes forward instead of resting on his laurels as in the past. Given Hernandez’s lack of preparation and ring rust, a fifth or sixth round stoppage is likely, with Andrade snapping a retreating Hernandez’s head back along the ropes to compel the referee’s intervention.
Prediction record for 2012: 83% (10-2)
Prediction record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
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