April 24th, Saturday
At Centro de Usos Multiples, Obregon, Mexico
(Fox Sports) Jorge Arce (53-6-1) vs. Cecilio Santos (24-13-3)
(The Ring magazine #10 junior bantamweight vs. unranked)
(Fox Sports) Miguel Beltran (22-0) vs. Joksan Hernandez (17-2)
Joksan Hernandez - Supporters claim he has never really lost a fight other than his last, where Hernandez’s late rally against Eduardo Escobedo fell short. Also left the ring on the short end of a decision with Filipino world title challenger Bernabe Concepcion, when both were emerging prospects in 2006. Hernandez gets credit for bouncing back from an early knockdown against Concepcion, and battling through a badly damaged eye to make that bout competitive in the late rounds. Is a volume puncher who gets stronger as the rounds progress, but was not averse to swinging for the fences in two fights, in which he found himself behind on the cards. Can be outmaneuvered, but never seems to fall into an opponents’ mindset, consistently pressing the action trying to engage and wear his opposition down. 52% kayo ratio is about right, but Hernandez has not been able to hurt his most talented foes. 23-year-old (turned pro at 16) Tijuana native is sure to have gotten a ton of quality sparring south of the border, and has been the ten-round distance on multiple occasions. Work is what Hernandez does, a pressure fighter who is not tricky with angles, but persistent in the ability to stay close to foes and connect. Best win was a gritty decision over well-schooled, but aging Hector Velazquez and, in two losses, was able to win his share of rounds. A solid and properly motivated pressure fighter.
Miguel Beltran – Young Mexican banger proved he is a quality prospect in his last fight, gutting out a 12-round decision over unrelenting Miguel Roman in December. Gained a measure of fame- and a lot of popularity- in Mexico by winning the “Campeon Azteca” reality boxing show (Mexico’s version of “The Contender”). At 19, is still maturing, and had not faced anyone of consequence until drastically ramping up his level of opposition last year. Aside from the Roman victory, handed southpaw prospect Eduardo Lazcano his first loss, but has failed to score a kayo in his last three appearances. Because of age, is still developing physically (looks like a young Manuel Medina or Maurice Blocker), not sculpted in the upper body and can be pushed around on the inside because of string bean physique. Beltran has a solid punch (68% kayo ratio) and, against weaker opposition, head-hunted too much, but shortened his punches and is concentrating more on accuracy in recent outings. Puts forth a persistent but snapless jab, and follows it with a downward angling, straight right hand. Is a bit of a showman, dropping hands on defense and entering fights with red-blue colored hair, sometimes forgetting his work in favor of telegraphing a looping punch. Some thought Beltran lost the Roman fight, but he is sure to have learned from the experience and is better because of it. Averages seven fights a year, and level of progression has been excellent in ramping up the quality of opposition. Beltran is a solid prospect who I am looking forward to seeing for the first time on American TV.
Result – Another quality test for young Beltran that increases in danger with every round, because Joksan gets stronger as a fight progresses. Still-maturing Beltran might be deficient in physique to deal with that, unless his legs can avoid those late charges. I think Beltran can do this; he showed well in fight against Roman late, and will control Hernandez from the outside with his jab and lateral movement. Beltran took good punches in the Roman fight, which was a perfect preparatory bout for this challenge. It won’t be easy, but more accurate Beltran wins a decision by two or more points.
Cecilio Santos – Over the last three years, Santos has only had two easy fights in ten ring appearances, and traveled to the hometown of the majority of his opponents. This is why Santos’ record is not exactly sparkling, but makes him a dangerous opponent in the later stages of his career. I liked what I saw from Santos on Telemundo shows, and he has had four title shots, but Santos has been stopped in his last two outings. Would have been an IBF beltholder, if given just one more round by a judge in his majority draw with Dimitri Kirilov in 2008. That was a nip-and-tuck affair, where Santos fought through a badly cut eye in the championship rounds. At 31, hand speed is waning, but Santos has relied more on guts and guile for two years now. A big part of that is a consistent body attack, and Santos’ feet are still good enough to reach the ribs of most opponents. Has short, muscular arms which are not conducive to pretty boxing from the outside. Was giving Canadian prospect Olivier Lontchi a real battle before a body shot, seemingly out of nowhere, felled Santos. Was knocked out by Wilfredo Vazquez Jr., AJ Banal, and Rico Ramos in three of his last four fights, a clear indication that Santos is slipping. At his best when coming forward, throwing a wide array of punches, but with a tendency to loop them. While Santos has been competent against great opposition, he has not really pushed an elite foe since 2008.
Jorge Arce – As tough and gritty a fighter as you want to witness; his passion and obvious love of the game has made Arce a fan favorite on both sides of the border. The little Mexican is becoming more reliant on one punch, as his speed and work rate decline with age. Arce received a lot of punishment in bouts against Darchinyan and Simphiwe Nongqayi, but seemingly found new life destroying tough Angky Angkota in his last outing. Not sure if losses to Vic Darchinyan and Cristian Mijares were a case of losing to great fighters, or if Arce has lost a step at age 30. Remember, Arce turned pro at age 16 (after a 37-3 amateur career) and has been in a lot of tough fights. To his credit, Arce looked in great shape physically, but there can be a concern he is overlooking Santos with a title fight against Eric Morel already scheduled. Has been fighting top-notch guys since 1997, like Victor Burgos and Omar Romero, so Arce’s body has seen better days. Nearly 67% kayo ratio is for real; stoppages have come against good opposition and are built upon a foundation of quality body work and constant pressure. Remains an offensive force with every punch available to him, only his speed has fallen a notch. Still capable of throwing combinations consistently, but seems to be lucidly keeping reserves of stamina. Arce averages three-to-four fights a year; this is his second of 2010 already, and logged over 330 quality rounds. A consistent pressure fighter, aside from the recent loss to Simphiwe Nongqayi Arce has not lost a fight in which he was favored to win. Has good size for a junior bantamweight, and been maintaining the weight for the last three years. Must begin to use his ring intellect more, or there is the possibility he could become a good name on up-and-comers resumes.
Result – Not only does Arce have a big advantage in skills, he is also five inches taller and sports a considerable reach advantage. I don’t doubt Arce will win, but am interested to see how Arce can make this easy by staying on the outside and picking Santos apart for a decision, or he can accept some punishment and go for a knockout. Because Arce is ruled by his heart instead of intellect, I am going with a fifth-round stoppage.
At The Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, CA
(HBO) Chris Arreola (28-1) vs. Tomasz Adamek (40-1)
(The Ring magazine #6 heavyweight vs. unranked)
(HBO) Alfredo Angulo (17-1) vs. Joel Julio (35-3) (The Ring magazine #5 junior middleweight vs. unranked)
Joel Julio - The opener features the “Next Great Thing”, Alfredo Angulo, against the fighter formerly known as the “Next Great Thing”, Joel Julio. Only a couple of years ago, Julio was seen as a young Felix Trinidad, but was found lacking in fights against two world titlists and then kayoed for the first time, by James Kirkland. Despite an amateur record of 85-0, Julio had very little international experience, and basically learned on the fly, after a pro debut at the age of 16. Now 25, Julio still has the potential of delivering on his promise, but time is running out on the power-punching Colombian. Nearly everyone concedes that he is an offensive force of the highest caliber, but only when Julio can keep opponents in front of him and within punching range. Two of his losses came against slick southpaws, who took advantage of a one-dimensional attack, and a setback to an attacking force like Kirkland is forgivable. Premature predictions of greatness were first retracted by boxing insiders after Carlos Quintana won a lopsided 12-round decision over Julio. After seven straight wins (one a close decision over Cosme Rivera, who dropped Julio in the 12th round), WBO champion Sergiy Dzinziruk similarly boxed his way to a relatively easy decision win. Now Julio finds himself in the position of gatekeeper to the new hot prospect. There is a possibility that if Julio fails to defeat Angulo, the gatekeeper role could become his permanent job classification in the sport. Not something expected from a fighter as promising as Julio once was, and would make him a lower profile version of Francisco Bojado.
Alfredo Angulo – The most exciting offensive force to come out of Mexico since Erik Morales or Daniel Ponce De Leon, whose aggression and quality have ensured Angulo Showtime or HBO appearances since his tenth pro fight. Was a quality amateur boxer representing Mexico in the 2004 Olympics (lost to Andre Dirrell in the America’s qualifiers), he was a four-time national champ and twice finished at bronze at the Pan American games. Andy Lee of Ireland ousted Angulo in the first round of the Olympic competition, but that was at middleweight. Finished with a record of 80-15 in the unpaid ranks, moving down to junior middleweight to fight as a pro. Described his ring style as, "I have a good jab and good defense. As soon as an opponent prepares to throw something at me, I am in position to punch back. I am an aggressive fighter, but I like to fight a very intelligent fight." Still improving and honing those instincts, Angulo only started boxing at age 17, after seeing a Julio Cesar Chavez fight. This makes him a well preserved 27-year-old, who seems to be getting more powerful. Has knocked out 13 of his last 14 opponents, but lost a 12-round decision to Kermit Cintron last year. His team blamed that loss on entering the fight with an illness that limited training, but even so (if that is true), Angulo gave a good account of himself and was the aggressor. Has faced quality opponents for the last three years, and retained his poise and stalking style every time out. Fights four times a year, and went the ten and 12-round distance twice, without relenting or losing punching power in the later rounds. The type of fighter who does not need a title, Angulo is a TV fighter who delivers action and drama every time he steps between the ropes. He is not Arturo Gatti or Julio Cesar Chavez, but he has the mentality and ferocity to walk in their shadows.
Result – Put on your helmets and hide behind the couch cushions; these two are going to launch bombs. This is a measuring stick fight, with Angulo trying to match or best James Kirkland’s stoppage of Julio. Watching’s Julio’s losses, I get the sense he has already maximized his potential and is aware of it, mentally entering a fight. The Kirkland loss reinforced that, and Angulo has the type of offense to make Julio flashback to that defeat. Angulo has the chin and brute force to walk Julio down, and I expect him to do so by the seventh or eighth round. If Angulo can mix in some lateral movement and a stiff jab, all the better. Either way, I can’t see Julio standing up to a consistent pressure fighter of Angulo’s caliber.
Tomasz Adamek – The Pole was an offensive force at light heavyweight and cruiserweight, and surprised some by knocking out Andrew Golota at heavyweight. Has many options on offense, where speed and angles produce stoppage power (66% kayo ratio) or he can fall back on work rate to get the job done on the scorecards. Like most Eastern European boxers, was expertly schooled in the amateurs, winning two Polish titles and finishing third at the European championships. Never won an international competition, but ended with a 108-12 record. Took up boxing at age 12 and, because of aggressive style of fighting, should be considered an old 33. I do categorize Adamek as a technically adept fighter, but he is the type of fighter that gets caught up in exchanges when he could use speed and knowledge of angles to win fights easier. Needs to show more dedication on defense, where his jaw and determination have combined to save him from losses. Has the ability and technique to be a good defensive boxer, but urge to land his own punch overrides self-preserving instincts. Adamek is a mentally tough road warrior, winning fights in Germany, England, Finland, Spain, and America. Only loss was to a speedier Chad Dawson, after which he immediately moved up in weight and scored nine consecutive wins against good opposition. Wars with Steve Cunningham and Johnathon Banks made him a minor cult figure in America, but back in Poland (and among America’s Polish population) Adamek is a bona fide hero. Enters the fight with a heavy heart, dedicating the bout to Poland’s late president Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash with his wife. A respected champion at light heavyweight and The Ring magazine Cruiserweight Champion, Adamek has made the jump to heavyweight, where he knocked out Golota and defeated Jason Estrada on points. Was said to train down from 215 pounds at cruiserweight, and expects to weigh around 225 against Arreola. Has right attitude about moving to heavyweight, “I was looking for challenges. I got the championship at cruiserweight. There were no challenges left for me. My life is about challenges." A proven blood-and-guts warrior, Adamek brings excitement to a division in desperate need of his dynamic brand of boxing.
Chris Arreola – This might sound harsh, but even a fat Arreola is too good a boxer for all but the elite at heavyweight. Arreola’s lack of a sculpted or muscular body, and perhaps the work ethic associated with that look, has led to derision that the amiable tough-guy has dealt with well. Minimalist, but thoughtful movement combines with underrated accuracy and balance to take apart foes unaccustomed to such savvy in an ordinary looking package. Began boxing at age eight, and despite never taking it seriously, had 200 amateur bouts and won a National Golden Gloves title at light heavyweight. Gained a reputation as James Toney’s lead sparring partner, unintimidated by Toney’s skills or mouth. Not a big one-punch hitter, despite an 86% kayo ratio, Arreola stops opponents through pressure, accuracy, and well-timed counters. Got a title shot against Vitali Klitschko on the back of style points and fan base (a quality Mexican-American heavyweight is sure to be a good draw), more than for whom he beat. Exciting wins over Travis Walker and Chazz Witherspoon should not have earned Arreola a title opportunity, but HBO was looking for a charismatic American to push against Team Klitschko. Never gave up in lopsided loss to Klitschko, but did not win a round and was surprisingly outquicked by the larger man. Arreola will never be a body beautiful, and he is constantly criticized for entering fights with 20 pounds of excess fat. Despite sloppy looks, Arreola showed fine stamina and an ability to take punishment in his only loss. Emotional outbursts, in wins and losses, during post-fight interviews show a desire to improve. There is a concern as to how much the Klitschko fight took out Arreola, and his actions against Adamek will be a good indicator of Arreola’s physical and mental recuperation. At 29, he boxes about four times a year, but has yet to reach a hundred rounds of boxing, despite entering 30th bout. Arreola still has the style and marketability to become a star, but needs to overcome reputation of a lackadaisical jokester to become more than just an “attraction” in the sport.
Result – Stop me if you heard this one before; IF Arreola arrives in shape, he will win the fight. Once again, Arreola claims to be in the best shape of his life, telling the L.A. Times, "I’ll be 239, fight night. I’m walking around right now at 253." I thought Adamek did not look at as much of a physical disadvantage (in prefight meetings and photo opportunities) as I first assumed, but it is Adamek’s penchant for not relenting that plays into the larger Arreola’s fists. Adamek got hit cleanly by a much slower Golota, and it is Arreola’s ability to put a combination of punches together that leaves me favoring him slightly. I also go with a hometown fighter in a close fight, and there is more of a possibility of Arreola scoring a knockdown than Adamek. It will be close, and I would not be surprised if Adamek breaks form and boxes after the third round. However, Arreola has a style more capable of matching Adamek than Adamek has the capabilities to unnerve Arreola with his pressure. Arreola catches Adamek in the mid-rounds for a flash knockdown, and his forward momentum gives Adamek- who is not used to fighting backwards- too many problems to overcome. I like Arreola by a close unanimous decision.
At MCH Messecenter Center, Herning, Denmark
(Showtime) Carl Froch (26-0) vs. Mikkel Kessler (42-2) (The Ring magazine #3 super middleweight vs. #4)
(WBC super middleweight belt)
Mikkel Kessler – Despite a loss to Andre Ward in his last fight, the Dane is perhaps the most well-rounded and controlled boxer at super middleweight. Which seems counterintuitive, given Kessler only had a 44-3 amateur record, and never won international acclaim in the unpaid ranks. It also flies in the face of the whole Viking warrior/brawn-over-brains heritage of Kessler. Began boxing at age ten, but did not have his first amateur bout until three years later. Defeated current middleweight champion Sebastian Sylvester in amateurs, but never even entered any European-level competitions at the senior level. A versatile pro, winning by decision or early/late-round stoppages, with a strong physique and aggressive attitude in the ring. Is a picture book boxer, every punch is symmetrically sound, finding the fastest and most direct route to an opponent’s chin. Does not neglect body work, and is patient in the early rounds while searching for weaknesses. Physical dimensions are ideal for the weight, but I would say his power comes from speed and technique and does not extent to infighting. In two career losses to Ward and Joe Calzaghe, Kessler showed an inability to deal with superior speed and movement, while previously displayed accuracy and ability to cut off the ring was nowhere to be seen. Like many European boxers, seems to have confidence and mental strength to overcome a loss, so I do not expect any residue in this area from the Ward setback. A citizen of the world (he lives in Monaco, but trains in Berlin and Copenhagen), Kessler has no problems traveling, taking on tough challenges in England, Australia, Germany and America. Has been fighting quality opposition since his pro debut, a good mix of styles as well, registering 233 rounds in 44 fights. Has cut his activity back to two fights a year, since 2006, but some of that had to do with contractual disputes. At 31, is slightly past his prime, but does not seem to have regressed noticeably in
terms of speed or activity. Kessler remains a force at 168 pounds, but a loss to Froch could make him a diminishing one whose best work could be in the rear-view mirror. A pro’s pro.
Carl Froch - First, a mea culpa. Initially, I thought Froch was overhyped by the British press, and that he most certainly thought too much of his own skills. Though I am right on the second part, no one can be as good as Froch thinks he is. I thought Jean Pascal would defeat Carl Froch when the pair met in 2008, and have to say Froch won me over in the way he battled and out-willed a more physically gifted opponent. Since then, I have reconsidered Froch, and correctly picked him to defeat Jermain Taylor and Andre Dirrell. Started to box at the age of nine, was a two-time English champion and won a bronze medal at the 2001 World Amateur Championships. Estimated his amateur record at 88-8. Turned pro late, at age 25, but continues to retain reflexes (much too low guard on defense, but uses his shoulders well as a barrier, though) that keep him out of trouble on defense and lend themselves well to his favorite fast up-jab/quick right hand combination. The Pascal bout was a give-and-take fight, the pair absorbing punches that should have dropped them, and both men had to rely on pure adrenaline to get through rough patches. I underestimated Froch in that fight, and I might have overestimated him because of it, since he struggled at times against Taylor and Dirrell. But both those men are talented fighters in their own right, and Froch exhibited a never-say-die attitude which will serve him well in any fight. I am most impressed by how Froch did not hesitate to launch punches simultaneously with Pascal and Dirrell, though obviously slower, and was willing to accept whatever came his way in order to land his own punches. Watching that, you gain a lot of respect for a fighter, and look forward to seeing him again. The Taylor fight was a breakout performance for Froch in America, and his aggressive manner and post-fight interview in the Dirrell bout did not lose him any fans. I would classify Froch as an educated mauler, who uses his skills to inflict damage on opponents instead of the scorecard. A cocky S.O.B. who is must-see-TV.
Result – In a fight where both men are equals, physically, and carry similar resumes, it is the fighter who can employ his style best that wins. Again, I must also acknowledge the hometown edge playing a role in close fights such as this. Kessler’s back is against the wall; if he does not win, Kessler is virtually eliminated from advancing in the tourney. I think the added focus and his straighter punches are the keys to victory. Froch has the chin and ego to stand up to Kessler, but will find himself chasing a more educated version of Dirrell. Kessler judiciously picks his spots to trade with Froch, but leads him into punches, winning on the cleanliness of his punches and an edge in total punches. This is a close fight, but I think the better looking punches carry the day with the judges, and perhaps the judges also pick up on Froch’s frustration as the rounds wear on. It is ring generalship that wins the day; I like Kessler by a close unanimous decision.
Prediction record for 2010 to date: 80% (74-18)
You can contact Marty at mmulcahey@elpasotel.net or www.facebook.com/fivedogs
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