July 23rd (Friday), 2010
At The Jose Cuervo Salon, Mexico City, Mexico
(Telemundo) Alejandro Hernandez (23-7-2) vs. Jesus Ceja (13-6-1)
Jesus Ceja - What I know about this last-minute replacement, announced on Tuesday, could be printed on a slip of paper found inside a fortune cookie. Aside from his record, I have had gotten no input on his style or ring temperament nor have I found anyone who has seen footage of him. Simply judging by his résumé, I do not expect much as his current two-fight kayo win streak came against 0-2 and 0-6 opponents. Before that, Ceja lost five fights in a row, stopped in four of those setbacks, and he only has one win over a good opponent in Juan Montes. Given the rest of Ceja’s results, that victory appears to be a fluke. Odd victories like that is one of the reasons why when I judge boxers, I generally dismiss their best win and worst loss to derive a median for final analysis. Cejas has won eight of his 13 wins by stoppage but, again, only one was against a quality adversary. I am not even sure how old Ceja is. Two potential negative factors are that Cejas has only fought one bout at this weight before and has never been past eight rounds. The mystery around Ceja will be solved tonight and I have a feeling it might not take long.
Alejandro Hernandez – For a young fighter (24 years old), Hernandez has faced some world-class opposition and held his own in spots. Already had two shots at alphabet belts, falling short against the criminally underrated Argentine Omar Narvaez and gaining a draw with young Filipino hotshot Marvin Sonsona. Some ringside observers thought Hernandez deserved the nod in the Sonsona contest. Hernandez is not a big puncher but he has a sturdy chin and is a patient counterpuncher who prefers for an opponent to lead. I watched a tape of the Narvaez fight and it looked like Hernandez closed up shop and was content to survive after the fifth round. However, he was younger back then and fighting in the champion’s backyard. Even in that fight, Hernandez showed he can cope with world-class opposition in spurts, throwing nice combinations without the aid of a blinding jab to lead into them. The Sonsona fight was different; in that one, an improved Hernandez and Sonsona took turns edging the other out with volume and leading with his punches in a thoroughly entertaining brawl. Hernandez fought back on a couple of occasions when it looked like momentum had shifted to the champion. One bad habit in both title fights is that Hernandez stayed on the ropes too much, allowing his opponent to get leverage and go to his body. Experience can’t be taught and is one of the things that helps develop boxers. Hernandez has now accumulated the experience to make him a better fighter and perhaps a contender in the future if he keeps improving in the gym. This seems to be the case since Hernandez showed something different by switching from orthodox to a southpaw stance pretty fluidly in the Sonsona bout. Too bad this fight is not likely to bring out the best in Hernandez.
Verdict – Last-minute replacements must have one big skill to forge an upset. Power, awkwardness, or an immense will to win come to mind. Ceja brings little more than a warm body and an average record that was built against no-hope opposition. Even given Hernandez’ average power, I would be surprised if this fights goes past the halfway mark.
At The Pechanga Casino, Temecula, CA
(Telefutura) Craig McEwan (18-0) vs. Danny Perez (34-7)
(Telefutura) Charles Huerta (13-1) vs. Jonathan Arias (15-5)
Jonathan Arias – The Mexicali native has not registered a win since 2007 (though facing solid adversaries) while losing his last five bouts, of which three came via stoppage. This will be Arias’ first time in the ring for nearly a year and the hope is that the rest did the aggressive 25-year-old some good and recharged his batteries. In his best win, Arias was able to defeat Francisco Arce, the brother of Jorge, which capped a 14-fight win streak from his pro debut. In that win, Arias used his stamina and work rate to gain a split decision win, putting Arce on his heels for the majority of the fight. Was generally a fast starter but, since moving up one weight class to junior featherweight, does not seem to have the same snap to his punches or resistance to punishment. Took talented Abner Mares the ten-round distance but did not win any rounds, spending the entire fight backpedaling trying to avoid punches. Does not have the defense to rise above journeyman level and lack of consistent jab makes him even easier to target. Is a lanky tough guy who won’t wilt or shy away from engaging his opponent after a lone hard blow. Has a good repertoire of punches but they are slow with the aforementioned lack of jab, failing to hide the intended trajectory. Arias is the type of fighter who makes a great sparring partner since he can do a lot of things in the ring but at a pace that is discernable and exploitable.
Charles Huerta – 23-year-old Californian was the first prospect to fall in Golden Boy’s Club Nokia series of bouts on FOX Sports. Perhaps the only one as well, given the poor matchmaking in the aftermath of Huerta’s setback. It is interesting to note he has not been put in with a fighter with a winning record since, still only managing a majority decision against 8-9 Guadalupe De Leon in his last fight. That run of bad form is odd, given Huerta’s reputation, and earlier results that saw him go eight good rounds against veteran Trinidad Mendoza before knocking him out. Began boxing at age eight and was an amateur star with over 100 wins and a two-time national champ in under-19 tourneys as well. Trophies dried up at the senior level though, which could have been a result of getting burned out. All but one of Huerta’s fights have been in California (the other in Mexico) and some suggest if he had not fought journeyman Andres Ledesma in his backyard, that split decision could have been a loss. I know this only seems to be highlighting the negatives but a prospect given such TV exposure should be posting better performances. When allowed, he too flashes fast fists but is generally economical with punches and closes the distance fast on retreating opponents. In fact, his feet could be Huerta’s main asset as he does not have problems maintaining contact with opponents. If he had a bigger punch, with a 50% kayo ratio, his lack of volume would not be a cause for concern. Does go to the body very well which will help as his rounds are increased and Huerta’s stamina becomes an asset. Needs to become more accurate since his misses leave him off balance and open to counters. Fights about five times a year and also gets a lot of good gym work in California where many world-class featherweights ply their trade. Has a good local following that has lead to headline bouts in the L.A area, which is rare to see these days with American boxers below championship level. A win tonight gets Huerta back on the right path, which needs to lead to a revenge match with the only man to have defeated him.
Verdict – Huerta is obviously being given a favorable push by Golden Boy promotions, which this matchmaking suggests and will not be put in a position to lose again for quite some time. Fluidity and hand speed are the overriding factors in favor of Huerta; his punches are thrown with more forethought as well. If Huerta does find himself getting hit too much, he can choose to use his feet to lead an Arias, who has problems with movers, into punches. With so many options, I can’t see Huerta dropping more than two rounds and walking away with an easy unanimous decision win.
Danny Perez – The hard working Californian has been boxing since age 11, putting his iron chin in front of the best the West Coast has to offer since 1996. Twice lasted the distance with Antonio Margarito (with or without loaded gloves), and until two fights ago was never beaten by someone who seemed a lesser boxer entering the bout. This fight will tell whether that was a one-off bad night or a sign of things to come. Is 33 years old, took three years off from 2005 to 2008 but still refused to keep out of brawls and use his experience to make fights easier. Perez gets sucked into exchanges because he lacks calculated movement to either create space or move inside to deliver his accurate punches. This leaves Perez in a no-man’s-land, open to quicker punchers or a good jab. In losses, has been unable to reach opponents with guile alone because he lacks world-class speed to maintain closeness to wear on opponents. Is at his best moving forward and throwing punches in straight lines but can get repetitive and did not show much imagination or urgency in losses. It had been nearly a year since Perez was last in the ring before returning with a respectable performance three months ago against hot Cuban prospect Erislandy Lara. His experience got him through the early rounds with little problem against Lara but Perez could not find a rhythm for himself or untrack a speedier foe. Won’t be intimidated by the situation, having stared down world-class opposition before. Perez is one of those blue-collar boxers who will not win a world title but whom contenders must beat in order to earn a title shot.
Craig McEwan - Most will know little about the Scottish headliner unless they read Steve Kim’s feature piece on McEwan a couple months ago. This prospect started boxing at age seven and has been racking up wins and international trophies from the opening bell. The 28-year-old southpaw has the talent and work ethic to keep Freddie Roach in his corner and is promoted by Golden Boy Promotions as well. A solid combination for sure, who have put a lot of faith in McEwan based on a vast amateur résumé that stretched to 300+ bouts over 13 years. So far, he has done them proud, knocking out 10 of 18 opponents fighting exclusively in America. McEwan’s fights are marked by his high work-rate which he needed to incorporate to keep Antonio Margarito at bay during their sparring sessions. McEwan stuck out in my mind because he was able to switch from southpaw to orthodox stance with relative ease, though it did seem to affect the power in his jab adversely when he turned orthodox. On defense, is hittable but perhaps I underrate him since McEwan avoids or rolls with the biggest punches while absorbing the lesser blows. His team has upped the level of competition in his last four fights, starting with a win over perennial ESPN spoiler Bryan Vera. McEwan did only manage one stoppage in that stretch which makes one wonder about his punching power at the highest level. In this sense, he is like Irish cousin John Duddy but a more accurate puncher who displays better defense. Even if McEwan does not reach the lofty goals of other fighters in Roach’s stable, he will be fun to watch and provide good action no matter the style put in front of them. Reason being, McEwan has the skills to track down opposition with lateral movement then make them engage him with his fists.
Verdict – This is a good match-up of wills and skills, with Perez’ veteran moves offsetting the complete but unspectacular skill set of McEwan. The classier way McEwan approaches opponents and his more visually pleasing punches will sway the judges his way; I also think McEwan’s superior accuracy will be noted by the ringside arbitrators. Perez might still have slightly faster hands but McEwan’s feet and timing will get him to spots quicker to land his punches first. Perez is more accepting of taking a punch, where McEwan still has the want of youth to work harder on defense and avoid costly blows. Overall, McEwan is too skilled in the basics to lose this fight but his next step up in class could be another matter. I like McEwan by unanimous decision but by no more than three points.
At The Tachi Palace Casino, Lemoore, CA
(ESPN2) Beibut Shumenov (9-1) vs. Vyacheslav Uzelkov (22-0)
(The Ring magazine unranked light heavyweight vs. #6)
(WBA light heavyweight belt)
(ESPN2) Rico Ramos (16-0) vs. Cuauhtemoc Vargas (15-3-1)
Cuauhtemoc Vargas – Multifaceted boxer was touted as a good prospect in the early and mid-2000s but got derailed by a loss to a then-unknown Tomas Villa (no shame in hindsight) and rushed into a make-up-for-an-unexpected-loss-fight against Juan Manuel Lopez, in which Vargas was annihilated. The “JuanMa” loss was in 2007 and Vargas just returned from that three-year absence with a 12-round setback to up-and-coming Jesus Ruiz two months ago. Grew up in a boxing family, his cousin Gregorio was a world champion and was tutored by Marco Antonio Barrera’s trainer in his first incarnation. Came up the hard way in the Mexico City gym circuit but I can’t find any amateur information on him Given how advanced Vargas looked early in his career, I assume he had to have a good amateur résumé or years of gym seasoning. Turned pro at age 16, which is why I hesitate to use the past tense describing a boxer who is still only 25 years old. Maybe Vargas was too immature back then, which could account for a weight fluctuation that went from 112 to 130 in four years’ time. Vargas’ losses were respectable ones to Juan Manuel Lopez and Tomas Villa and he was ahead of Villa on the cards when a phenomenal body shot dropped him like a proverbial shot. A combination puncher who prefers to end flurries with a big left hook to body or head with the right mix of speed and power. At his best, is a volume puncher but he can switch up and go for power, in which case, his right hand becomes more of a weapon as Vargas uses jabs to hide punches’ trajectories. It is a bad sign for Vargas that his management took the fight with Ruiz as his first comeback and at 12 rounds to boot! Has been training steadily because I remember him mentioned as a potential opponent for Guillermo Rigondeaux. Also read reports that Vargas has been sparring with Japanese prospect Tomoki Kameda. This is a make-or-break fight for Vargas, whose reputation as a former prospect will be erased with a third consecutive TV loss.
Rico Ramos – An experienced amateur boxer who hooked off the jab before his tenth birthday. Rose to the level of 2006 PAL champ and silver medalist at the 2006 Golden Gloves and 2007 Nationals and selected for a couple of international-level meets. Was considered a favorite for the Olympic team but there was a lot of depth on the West Coast below 126 pounds and he lost in the finals to Raynell Williams. Has made the transition to the pros easy for himself with a combination of speed and well-chosen aggressiveness. The Los Angelino displayed crisp, zipping punches against Alejandro Perez on “ShoBox” eight months ago in an unexpectedly easy win. Ramos’ accuracy and willingness to stay in the pocket and trade made me take note. In last fight, against Reynaldo Lopez who has 30 wins to his credit, put his opponent down twice but could not get the stoppage. Seemingly, never throws less than three punches at a time but does not get greedy and remain stationary too long. Displayed maturity by not letting Perez’ headbutts get to him and dropped his determined foe in the second round. Maintains sharpness by staying in the ring- eight bouts in 2008 and six in 2009- which keeps the 23-year-old youngster fresh and focused. In only his 13th bout, won a six-round decision over former two-weight champ Kermin Guardia but had some problems with the southpaw failing to stop his older and smaller rival. Maintains a 56% kayo ratio but has not dispatched his best opponents in three of his last four bouts. Is said to be a hard worker in the gym (why his weight has never fluctuated above four pounds from pro debut) so he is sure to work on those finishing skills. Went the eight-round distance twice without taking a deep breath. Has the managerial backing of Al Haymon and is promoted by Goossen-Tutor, a team that will accentuate Ramos’ positives if the wins continue to mount.
Verdict – These two are heading in opposite career trajectories and, once that kind of momentum is generated, it is hard to put a stop to the mid-fight mental questions that are asked of boxers. Ramos is also the much speedier and naturally larger boxer who can resort to either if Vargas has a fast start. Ramos still lacks finishing instincts so I will not call for a kayo against a Vargas who has shown survival skills. I hope Vargas is not shot mentally because if he comes in with the right frame of mind, I do not think an upset is out of the realm of possibilities. Still, I like Ramos by a decision but wish it were scheduled for ten rounds to see how Ramos reacts to that distance.
Vyacheslav Uzelkov – The more I see and read about Uzelkov, the more I like him. The 31-year-old began boxing at age seven, medaling at several international competitions for the Ukraine. Though a proven winner in international meets, he always came up slightly short in the big tourneys and never qualified for the Olympics. Fought as high as heavyweight where he got a bronze at the world championships, losing out to David Haye in the semi-finals. Is a rock-solid light heavyweight now who puts up a high forearm defensive guard like Arthur Abraham but lacks the German’s brute power. On offense, takes small steps forward with his chin down and has a tricky jab that starts high and is sometimes thrown as he walks in. Would describe Uzelkov as a thinking fighter who has mastered the basics and conversely knows how to take a basic boxer apart with jabs and selective aggression. He destroyed former champion Gabriel Campillo (against whom Shumenov won and lost controversially), who is a very good boxer but struggled against awkward Alejandro Lakatos since his punches were not of the norm and needed some time to adjust. Is said to be a gym rat of the highest order, working under the good conditions provided by K2 Promotions, which is owned by the Klitschko brothers. Left hook is his best punch, which is set up well by a blinding jab that he changes velocity on and he can hook to the body straight off the jab. Though the left does the most damage, the majority of his finishing blows seems to be straight right hands. Not athletic enough to employ different styles but in Campillo bout, he changed pace in an instant, going from a one-punch-at-a-time pace to swarmer when his foe was hurt. Activity is a concern, only fighting an average of twice a year and not at all in 2010 but he has stopped nine of his last ten opponents (64% kayo ratio overall). Because of popularity, fought almost exclusively in the Ukraine with one fight in Monaco and another in Las Vegas, early in his career. Traveling to fight should not be a concern, given his amateur background, and Uzelkov is well-educated outside the ring where his education in physiology aids him inside the ropes. Stamina could be an issue since he last went 12 rounds in 2008 and in general, has not gone past eight rounds because of his string of kayos since 2006. Is a star in his native Ukraine, appearing on their TV versions of “Wipeout” and “Dancing with the Stars.” Those who enjoy Arthur Abraham will find a lot to like in Uzelkov’s ringmanship and an impressive win puts him in a good position, considering this division is starving for a star attraction.
Beibut Shumenov - I remain confused by Shumenov. Is he a world-class boxer who struggled with an equally talented Gabriel Campillo in two close and controversial bouts or an average beltholder that will have a short-lived title reign? To his credit, Shumenov is one of the quickest boxers to ever win a major alphabet belt, doing so in his 10th pro bout, and his level of opposition is off the charts, compared to elite American prospects. Shumenov also claims that the distractions of managing and promoting himself have now been erased after he signed with Goossen-Tutor. From what I have gleaned from interviews and people I contacted, Shumenov is a lot like Kostya Tszyu, as far as personality type and strength of mind. Tszyu also had an accelerated learning curve, defeating former champion Juan LaPorte in his fourth fight, and placed a high importance on the mental aspect of boxing. Shumenov defeated former champ Montell Griffin in his sixth fight and fought for an alphabet title in only his ninth bout. He lost that fight to Campillo and looked to avenge the only defeat of his young career. Ambition is obviously not a problem with the Kazakhstani, who was an Olympian (a hand injury derailed him in the tourney) and moved to Las Vegas to have the best training available to him. Remarkably, Shumenov is not entirely devoted to boxing and even called the sport a "hobby" in an interview with boxing writer Anson Wainwright. "I’m enjoying this sport and it’s more a hobby than a career for me.” Maybe that is what led to his lone loss and is something he rectified. Shumenov is a strong puncher who sets up his punches well and never seems off-balance, despite holding his hands too low. Has fast hands and does not hesitate to throw a punch at small openings. Has gone the 12-round distance three times with few problems, showing adaptability and the patience to stay within himself when a kayo is not in the cards. Shook off good punches in Campillo bouts but, in retrospect, was too hittable, showing little upper body movement. Shumenov says of himself with more modesty than can be conveyed in print, "I am very talented. I have good feet, power and I’m also a quick learner." At 26, is in his prime, and a victory tonight will go a long way to erasing the two controversial fights against Campillo. Shumenov is the type of fresh new face the light heavyweight division lacks since the 175-pounders have had the highest median age of their top ten for the last half decade.
Verdict – This is a quality main event and I have been going back and forth on picking a winner every day this week. I have built plausible scenarios for either man emerging with the victory and many might be fooled into thinking Shumenov is better just because he holds a title belt. While Shumenov is the champ, it is Uzelkov who enters the fight with a Ring magazine ranking. Which is more telling of their respective worths? This is no knock of Shumenov but I just get a more of a positive felling from Uzelkov, watching him fight. His style and body are not as formidable or imposing as Shumenov but he is the more effective boxer and fights at a more reliable pace. I believe, mentally, Shumenov might have met his match as well and because Uzelkov has had to wait so long for a title shot, he will be primed from the opening bell. Uzelkov starts forcefully and sets the tone, where his power and accuracy catches Shumenov early and will prevent a rally in the late rounds where Uzelkov’s could be vulnerable. A solid body attack will also play a role in an Uzelkov win, plus the Ukrainian is a better finisher and has the higher probability of scoring a knockdown. I get a sense that Uzelkov is more committed as well, with fewer distractions and more devotion to his craft. This fight will make both men better but only Uzelkov will emerge with the victory.
Prediction record for 2010 to date: 83% (142-30)
You can contact Marty at mmulcahey@elpasotel.net or visit him at www.facebook.com/fivedogs
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