Eduardo Arcos – 12 stoppages in 16 fights looks good until you recognize all but one of those kayos came against opponents who had zero career victories. The young Mexican, 22-years-old, has only beaten two men with winning records (2-1 and 3-1) and both of those were via split decision. Fought outside Mexico once and was stopped by undefeated California prospect Christopher Martin. Lankily built, Arcos is a high-volume puncher who likes to swarm opponents early and in lone loss, resorted to rabbit punches and hard shouldering to make up for a lack of defense. He was game in that loss, forcing the ringside doctor to call a halt to the fight in the seventh round. The Tijuana-based brawler battled cuts in that loss as well, displaying a willingness to get hit to throw his own punches. On the negative side, Arcos revealed no head movement and looping punches (especially a pushed right hand) that allowed straight jabs from his foe to dominate the action. Arcos had to slim down to 122 pounds for that fight; he usually fights at 126, so he might have been weakened by weight loss. From video footage, seems to lack upper body strength and does not make good use of his long arms with a range-finding or snappy jab. Arcos is a spirited competitor on offense but with enough defensive holes to make Swiss cheese envious.
Carlos Velasquez – The harder hitting of a hyped set of boxing twins (the Puerto Rican version of the Peterson brothers) who Golden Boy Promotions signed amid much fanfare in 2007. 25-year-old Velasquez had more success than his brother in the amateurs and the pros, for that matter, as Juan Velasquez suffered a shock loss last year. Beat Olympic champion and current title contender Yuriorkis Gamboa in the amateurs and represented Cuba in the 2004 Olympics (losing to Brazilian Edvaldo Oliveira in a wild 43-43 bout). Said to have ended his unpaid career with a 220-30 record then built a pro style to mimic favorite boxer Felix Trinidad. Given his popularity, I am surprised that this is Velasquez’ first professional bout in his native Puerto Rico and it will be interesting to see how he copes with expectations. Velasquez is 12-0 with 10 kayos, against poor opposition with the exception of Ira Terry in his last bout. Only three of his opponents came in off a win, and none of his foes were hard punchers. The same holds tonight. The one positive about three of his last four victims is that they entered with over 40 bouts of pro experience each and, in general, they are not below what other prospects face early on. Velasquez only fought twice last year (four and five times the two previous years), so I hope that lack of activity is corrected starting with Friday’s fight. On three viewings of Carlos, he looks like a born puncher, both in form and physique, who compliments and enhances his power with fluid combinations. Velasquez has a solid build with wide chest and rounded shoulders; standing 5’9”, he uses a forceful jab as more of a weapon than range finder. Showed in spots, against Ira Terry, that he recognizes when and how to be effective off his back foot, if it is to his advantage. Surveys opponents intelligently on defense, blocking shots or completely eliminating an incoming shot by pivoting away before a foe can set and launch. Seems hyped for the fight. “I am so proud and happy to fight in my hometown of Catano; it’s a dream. I had a great training camp. I’ve been waiting for this opportunity a long time.” A very good prospect who will please fans with his thoughtful style of attack.
Verdict – As usual, Golden Boy’s Telefutura cards (they are the network’s lone provider) feature one good prospect in a fight sandwiched between bouts of prepubescent pros. So I will only be covering the Velasquez bout. Though Velasquez has a three-inch height advantage, at 5’9", it is Arcos who has a two-inch reach advantage. No matter, since Arcos has no sense of distance and leans in so much that his jab is often ineffective or off the mark. Velasquez is just too skilled and disciplined for Arcos to find any consistent offense. Arcos will get torn apart by counterpunches early and lead rights late. Arcos showed heart in his lone loss but I can’t see him lasting more than four rounds tonight.
At The Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
(ESPN2) Zab Judah (38-6) vs. Jose Armando Santa Cruz (28-4)
(ESPN2) Alex Perez (11-0) vs. Edvan Barros (10-9-1)
Edvan Barros – Brazilian brawler has not had an easy fight since coming to America in 2006, giving honest but limited performances in losses to quality prospects like Luis Collazo and Jesus Soto Karass. He is an all-around athlete, competing in mixed martial arts and Jiu-Jitsu competitions before boxing but Barros has not found it easy going against top-level boxers. Turned pro late, at age 25, and has lost six of his last seven fights. To his credit, all six losses have come against very good opponents and Barros scored an upset over Argentine slickster Rodolfo Martinez but has since lost three in a row. I gained an immense amount of respect for Barros when he got up from a vicious body shot by Keith Thurman, tying up long enough to get his wind back and survive the round and fight. 31-year-old has better than average power, seven stoppages in ten wins, and his chin is good as well, with a lone stoppage loss coming via perfectly placed body shot. Until Martinez victory, Barros had more trouble with movers than bangers but always comes into a fight in shape. For more information on Barros, check out the excellent “Ring Life” episode HBO did on Barros.
Alex Perez - Don’t know much about this southpaw other than occasional blurbs from local East Coast reporters who commented on his composure and ease in the ring; plus, I love his nickname of "The Brick City Bullet". Perez reputedly did well, holding his own in sparring sessions with power punchers Miguel Cotto, Joel Julio, and jab artists like Sergio Martinez and Felix Sturm. Has a good amateur background, began boxing at age eight, fighting internationally and recording a 56-3 record. Perez has had an accelerated progression, going ten rounds in tenth fight, most likely due to his advanced age of 28 for a prospect. Has managed seven stoppages in 11 bouts and must stay fit between fights coming in between 147 and 150 for every fight dating back six years. Turned pro in 2004 but had a two-year absence from 2008 to 2009 (is trying to put a street life behind him that resulted in his being shot twice) and only had one fight in 2009. Despite good power in both hands, I find it interesting that Perez was not able to stop his two best foes. Perez lost some rounds against those opponents as well but went on to win both by unanimous decision. Is a huge welterweight at 6’1" and that physical presence is even more overwhelming coming at opponents from a southpaw stance. Says he models himself after- and tries to incorporate the styles of- Marvelous Marvin Hagler and Alexis Arguello. Boxes out of New Jersey, which has a good gym system and incorporates outside talent from Philly and New York as well. Already been seen in diverse settings, registering bouts in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico but does most of his work in the Atlantic City area.
Verdict – As much as I appreciate Barros, I also understand his limitations against boxers who can move or outthink the veteran. The only opposition Barros remains competitive with are brawlers or sluggers who can’t get out of the way of their own feet. Perez is a good boxer whose southpaw stance will work well against a guy like Barros, switching angles and ensuring Barros cannot get the fight into the trenches. Perez will win a distance affair and most likely look good doing so because of Barro’s inability to stay out of range or muscle his way inside. Perez circles, jabs, and potshots his way to a unanimous decision.
Jose Armando Santa Cruz – By all measures of decency, Santa Cruz won the WBC interim lightweight title but was robbed by NYC judges in his fight against Joel Casamayor in 2007. Like other boxers who went through similar injustices, Santa Cruz found it hard to rebound from the disappointment of seemingly having fulfilled a life goal. If another title opportunity lies in his future, he needs to put that travesty behind him and focus on this opportunity. The Mexican, now residing in California, surprised most boxing observers by beating Casamayor to the punch and forcing the champ into a higher tempo pace in the first quarter of their fight. Santa Cruz is a fast starter who makes opponents react to him from the opening bell and in a tenth-round TKO loss to David Diaz, was ahead on the scorecards by five points. Has been stopped in three of his four losses but I would not say he was chinny because all but one came in the late rounds and a stoppage at the fists of bomber Antonio Pitalua is forgivable. Is an aggressive boxer who gets the job done via volume but can make use of an accurate jab when he sees an opportunity to work from the outside. Santa Cruz picked himself off the canvas in a bout with Edner Cherry, refusing to deviate from a game plan that eventually led to a decision victory. That takes mental strength, which is why the setback to Casamayor was so devastating. Though not impressively muscled, Santa Cruz is a strong fighter whose opponents exit with plenty of bruising and swelling. Relentless style of Santa Cruz reminds me of 1990s Mexican world champ Manuel Medina (one of my favorites of all time) but is a harder puncher with less intuition to make his punches more effective. Says of the Judah bout, "I will apply pressure but I will not be reckless. Maybe I will switch to southpaw to keep him off balance.” Moved up from lightweight in past year but his body should sustain the added weight with little problem. A tough grind-‘em-out fighter who will give problems to any fighter who lacks defensive or strength up the middle.
Zab Judah – So much was expected of Judah in the early and mid-2000s that winning world titles in two weight classes still seems like a career underachievement. Coming out of New York City, Judah was hyped as a Pernell Whitaker with a kayo punch and in spots, he showed that kind of potential. A lack of focus, as well as consistency, doomed Judah against elite opposition. Kostya Tszyu is a perfect example where Judah had everything his way until he got cocky and Tszyu landed a right hand that nearly took his head off. It is as if Judah has boxing attention deficit disorder with a frenetic thought process preventing the Brooklynite from putting forth three good rounds, consecutively. At 32 years old, it seems Judah still has good fights left in him, if beatdowns at the hands of Miguel Cotto and Josh Clottey did not leave any residual effects. A close look reveals Judah has not defeated a top-ten opponent since 2005 (Cory Spinks) and I believe the Tszyu setback ruined Judah mentally. He can still do everything physically and retains enough quality on offense and defense to win an alphabet title. Will have to work more for it on offense now since his stoppages were more the result of his speed catching opponents unaware than one-punch power. Fans might not appreciate it but Judah needs to get back some of the defensive pizzazz that set up counterpunches and use the punching accuracy that earned Judah a 110-5 amateur record. Only fought once in 2009 and twice in 2008, which is poor scheduling, given Judah’s style relies on timing and muscle memory that need to be kept sharp. Because of that, there could be concern for Judah on defense since he relies on snappy reflexes instead of maintaining distance to avoid punches. Might have to adjust his offense, not staying in the pocket to throw combinations and begin to move his attack on the outside to utilize angles instead of hand speed. Did absorb a lot of punishment before capitulating in losses to Cotto and Clottey. Can be compared to Paul Malignaggi in that way since both gained fanfare and adulation in brave losses vice quality wins. There is no question Judah retains name recognition, so reminding people and TV networks of his marketability by appearing on ESPN2 is a wise move.
Verdict - It still takes a top-ten opponent to track down and unsettle Judah but Santa Cruz has enough of an offensive arsenal to tell us if Judah has slipped to the point of vulnerability against less-than-championship caliber opposition. I don’t think Judah is there yet and he will beat Santa Cruz to the point of engagement with his feet and to the punch with his hand speed. Two-inch height and reach advantage for Santa Cruz would play a role if he were more of an outside operator but Judah is a good judge of distance. I don’t see Judah having enough firepower to take out Santa Cruz unless the Mexican has trouble with his move up in weight through absorbing punches or fatigue. It is hard to look good against Santa Cruz and Judah will lose a couple rounds. I look for Judah to find his rhythm by the fourth round and win by a comfortable margin on the cards...but eat more punches than expected.
At The DeSoto Civic Center, Southaven, MS
(Showtime) Fernando Guerrero (18-0) vs. Ishe Smith (21-4)
(Showtime) Lanard Lane (12-0) vs. Mike Dallas (14-0-1)
(Showtime) Shawn Porter (15-0) vs. Ray Robinson (11-1)
Mike Dallas – Nicknamed “The Silent Assassin,” Dallas is earning a solid reputation on the West Coast and is predicted to make some noise in the lightweight division. If you were not aware that Dallas’ favorite boxers are Pernell Whitaker and Floyd Mayweather, you will recognize that fact within seconds of his dodging the first punch. Though defensive thoughts come first, the kid is not boring and will take chances as the fight progresses. Was born into boxing, his father and grandfather were pro fighters. Dallas began boxing as early as five and left the amateur system with a 115-12 record and won a national title (a PAL and was a runner-up in the Golden Gloves but, in general, had a bad habit of finishing top-four instead of first). Like many others, was discouraged by politics in the amateur system and, after losing at the quarterfinal stages in the 2007 Olympic trials, decided to turn pro. Is guided by James Toney’s former manager Jackie Kallen and promoted by the experienced hands over at Goossen-Tutor. This is Dallas’ second televised bout (had one ESPN appearance) but it is his biggest stage to date and he will no doubt try to impress with a combination of speed and reflexes. Both will be tested since “ShoBox” demands fighters are matched tough but Dallas seems to be the type motivated by his opposition and has been prepped for this occasion all his life. Intimidation should not be a factor as Dallas has sparred with Manny Pacquiao and other champs at the Wild Card Gym. Still trained by his father and if there is a crack in that relationship, it will be stressed tonight. Dallas is a smart kid, in and out of the ring, attending college between training sessions. Dallas’ style reminds me a bit of Hank Lundy, who lost last week on ESPN2 to John Molina, but his movement and punch are more fluid. Dallas is definitely a thinker in the ring but is he fast enough of mind to cope with a well-versed offensive force?
Lanard Lane – Considering he was born in Philadelphia, Lane came to boxing late, not picking up gloves and throwing a punch until age 16. Under the guidance of Ronnie Shields, went 66-10 in the amateurs and turned pro at age 25, since he was not engaging divergent styles to prepare him for the pros because an Olympic berth was not something Lane aspired to. Now resides in Houston and is managed by the astute Al Haymon. Gained a reputation for hard sparring sessions with then-world champs Juan Diaz and Juan Lazcano as an amateur and Kermit Cintron commented positively on skills shown in sparring as well. A confident and mature 27-year-old person, in and out the ring, whose relaxed manner allows him to throw combinations from opening to final bell. A full-time firefighter (He works two 24-hour shifts), Lane devotes his downtime fully to boxing. Stopped seven of 12 opponents, none more convincingly than Moroccan prospect Said El Harrak on “ShoBox” three fights ago. That was a two-round stoppage with Lane in control for every second, rocking Harrak repeatedly with quick and accurate one-twos. Is solid on both sides, sporting a good defense based on blocking more than avoiding incoming punches. Biggest positive is his hand speed, which allows Lane to experiment on working different combinations. Rarely do you see him throwing one punch at a time. In an interview, stated he has never been hurt or on the canvas. Spoke the truth about this fight as well, “In order to be the best you have to meet and beat the best along the way and “ShoBox” is the place to do it.”
Verdict – I generally prefer guys who live in boxing vice picking it up later in life and finding they are good at it. There is just something about a fighter who begins boxing before the age of ten that creates innate anticipation that cannot be taught. So I should be picking Dallas but think his lack of commitment to offense will hurt him in the judges’ eyes and the volume and pressure of Lane will win over the judges even if the more effective punches are landed by Dallas. One of those tough choices where volume overcomes accuracy plus I have more confidence in Lane as the rounds progress and his more potent physical force should prevail. It might be by split decision but Lane wins a close one that both fighters will benefit from down the road.
Ray Robinson – First off, I have a hard time rooting for someone marketed as the “New” Ray Robinson. There are some sacred symbols in boxing that should not be encroached upon and trying to draw comparison to the original “Sugar Ray” before a boxer’s 15th fight is ridiculous. Robinson is a tall (5’10"), quick-fisted southpaw who likes to operate from the outside in. Raised tough in the Philly gym system, Robinson does not lack for confidence and, judging from interviews, seems a serious young man and student of the game. Had a good amateur career, representing America in some international tourneys but never reached heights some expected and because his style was suited for the amateurs. First saw him fight against Darnell Jiles on ESPN2 and Robinson displayed a good jab and solid work rate. However, that volume was not concentrated and lacked focus. That cost him in recent loss to fellow prospect Brad Solomon, who moved laterally to disrupt Robinson and guided him into counters as Robinson dipped in to connect. Before that, I liked Robinson’s attention to maintaining space, which helps him on defense and keeps opponents guessing as to when Robinson is about to open up on offense. Could still be a very good prospect with ample skills and a Hearns-like physique. Needs to exploit that lefty stance more and not come in straight at opponents or neglect a blinding jab that catches foes off guard by its length. I find it hard to stomach when young boxers are downgraded by fans after one loss and, at 24, Robinson has time to rebound. His body has not uncoiled into an explosive power yet and Robinson will have to sit down on his punches if he is to attract a big fan base in The City of Brotherly Love.
Shawn Porter – Ohio native recently had a somewhat disappointing fight as a headliner in his hometown but there are always issues with fighting in front of a home crowd for the first time. Porter was an amateur star who beat headliner Fernando Guerrero and 168-pound contender Demetrius Andrade in the unpaid ranks. Finished his internship with a 276-11 record and plenty of national titles (Golden Gloves title among them), along with registering many international bouts. Missed out on participating in the 2008 Olympics, losing to Daniel Jacobs, but made the team and trip to China as an alternate. Porter shows commitment as a pro, slimming down from his debut weight of 165 pounds to a solid 154 pounds with an aim to compete at 147 in the near future. Has gotten quality sparring at Freddie Roach’s Wild Card Gym, mixing it up with P4P great Manny Pacquiao. Also sparred with former middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik and went as high in weight as sparring light heavyweight champ Chad Dawson. Helpful hints from master coach Freddie Roach have helped Porter’s father, who still trains his son and has not been a problem to date. Porter has shaken all amateur tendencies with only three of his 15 pro opponents hearing the final bell. Most compare Porter to Andre Berto but I see more of a Meldrick Taylor (OK, nowhere near him at this stage of his career. Maybe a Sharmba Mitchell comparison is more apt?) influence. 22-year-old flashes fast combinations and an eagerness to engage opponents head-on, despite advantages in speed and ability. Moves in and out of range with snappy foot work, all along bouncing happily on his toes, looking for openings his movement creates. One obvious item that could hold Porter back is a lack of height and reach, only standing a reported 5’7” “tall” in a division where 5’10” is the norm, which is why his team is trying to train him down to a welterweight. Has great activity, fighting seven times over the last year. Another good-looking prospect whose lofty ambitions are perfectly in tune with this series.
Verdict – This is what happens to publicized prospects who suffer unexpected losses; managers prod them into even tougher fights to try and recapture the prestige an undefeated record gives and TV networks crave. I happen to think a loss can be a good thing for a young fighter; only the truly strong ones are able to overcome these setbacks mentally and get back on the right track. Not sure if Robinson has that; he is an inexperienced 24-year-old and he is put in with a fighter whose style is all wrong for him. Porter throws the more compact and slightly faster punches, which is all you need to know if Porter gets his way and darts inside to fight. Robinson lacks the physicality to stop Porter from crowding him and showed a lack of movement to maintain distance in his loss to Solomon. Look for Porter to grind Robinson down and bully him along the ropes and corners to gain a stoppage victory before the sixth.
Ishe Smith - Initially gained fame in the first season of “The Contender” series, but is 31 years old now and still looking to cash in on that opening burst of fame. This is the third fight for Smith at middleweight and, almost two years ago, handed New York City prospect Pawel Wolak his first loss at 154. Smith has respectable skills in every department except power- a 36% kayo ratio- and is more adept on the defensive side where he lures opponents into misses without making them pay enough in return. It has allowed him to face a good level of opposition without losing by stoppage but also relegated him in stature to that of a respectable but beatable opponent. When Smith has stepped up against higher caliber boxers- Sergio Mora, Joel Julio, and Sechew Powell- he lost in boring fashion, deciding to lower his offensive output thus avoiding punishment and possible victory. Did defeat hot-and-cold former champion Randall Bailey and Smith’s good movement and counterpunching style gives pause to a manager putting their prospect in against him. Have not decided how fighting at 160 pounds will affect his speed but Smith usually enters a fight in top shape. Smith gave Daniel Jacobs a good fight in his last fight, in which Smith was surprisingly strong, given Jacobs’ reputation as a strong puncher. If Smith is to ever become anything more than a gatekeeper (or sparring partner to the likes of Floyd Mayweather and Chad Dawson), he needs to use this Showtime spotlight fight to move to the next level. The odds are against him, in that regard, but desperation does a lot for aging fighters.
Fernando Guerrero – One of the few American (born in Dominican Republic and came to America at age eight) prospects with enough charisma to amass a strong local following, not just relying on cable TV to gain name recognition. Some of Guerrero’s home fights had crowds nearly as boisterous as Ricky Hatton does in Manchester, something too genuine for TV to be able to produce synthetically. Has a very good amateur background (beat Shawn Porter once), boxing 140 times, and began to fight in his early teens but emulated his hero Felix Trinidad too much for an amateur system that rewards accuracy over power. Fought internationally and was a Junior Olympian, won the 2007 National Golden Gloves tourney and finished second the year before. Lost out to Shawn Estrada in a bid for the 2008 Olympics but, considering his pro style, Guerrero did better than is to be expected with the amateur scoring system. Has not disappointed as a pro, knocking out 15 of 18 opponents and using an imposing physique to move opponents around the ring. Also enjoys the advantages of a southpaw but squares up too much in finishing sequences. Needs to work on varying his punch selection since all his kayos have come before the fifth round, revealing a lack of imagination. I don’t think it has anything to do with stamina, with Guerrero showing good wind in a ten-round decision over Ossie Duran. Dealt well with a late-round cut over his eye in that fight as well. Displays a good mix of speed and power in both hands but should up his punch output as long as it does not affect his accuracy, which is above average. Defense is not bad but, because of Guerrero’s youth (23 years old), he relies on reflexes instead of keeping proper distance or getting his hands up, coming out of combinations. Is marketed as a kayo artist but I think Guerrero lacks that extra nanosecond of speed to make his punches more impactful. A bit like Arthur Abraham in that sense. Has been fighting at super middleweight and middleweight. Seems most suited for middleweight where his physical dimensions are just right. Interviews reveal a humble and astute person and nearly everyone comments on Guerrero’s tremendous work ethic. A definite prospect, Guerrero seems to possess the right mix of personal and ring ingredients to move beyond “ShoBox” and into Showtime’s championship series telecasts.
Verdict - Too big, too strong. Those are two reasons Guerrero will win but I am glad he is put in with a Smith who will allow us to see if Guerrero has more than those two assets in order to get a stoppage. Guerrero will need to display some boxing skills and lateral movement to track down Smith and cut off the ring. If Guerrero is able to do that, it could result in a stoppage vice a decision win and remember that no one has been able to stop Smith to date. I don’t think Guerrero has the acumen yet to stop Smith but his physical advantages will win the day and allow him to absorb any return fire in cruising to a decision win.
Prediction record for 2010 to date: 82% (134-29)
You can contact Marty at mmulcahey@elpasotel.net or visit him at www.facebook.com/fivedogs
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