Nobuhiro Ishida- Slick veteran fights younger than his 36 years of age, employing all the tricks 240 rounds of professional boxing affords. Ishida has been around the sport for decades, turning pro 12 years ago, lacing up the gloves at age six, emulating a father who boxed. Gained notoriety, knocking out feared James Kirkland 10 months ago but lost momentum with four scheduled bouts canceled between then and now. Won several national high school titles before matriculating to college where Ishida continued to box in the amateurs. Finished with a 101-15 amateur record and surprisingly scored 50% of those wins via stoppage. That trend did not continue when Ishida turned professional, only registering nine stoppages in 24 wins. Ishida has a lanky frame, standing 6’1”, with most of his musculature and strength generated around the torso. Lacks definition and muscle mass on his chest and shoulders, probably the reason why Ishida does not engage in infighting (trainer claims he is deceptively good on the inside) and is pushed out of clinches. Ishida won an “interim” title against an average banger, Venezuelan Marco Avendano, but lost it to Rigoberto Alvarez in Mexico after one easy defense. The close decision loss to Alvarez might have gone his way on neutral ground and a flash knockdown proved the difference. Ishida is a jab-and-react mover, adjusting his next punch or movement according to the success of the initial jab. The jab is also his best weapon and Ishida uses his size well in gauging distance. Long right hand is accurately thrown off an even longer jab with both punches coming at a high speed since Ishida is selective, making every punch count. Ishida has a solid chin; his feet make him hard to corner and it will take a combination of punches to rattle the comfortable stylist. Enters winning 15 of his last 17 fights and the loss was debatable. Has traveled outside of Japan in his last three ring appearances. Ishida lives part time in California, jetlag or acclimatization is not a factor, and he has been sparring with the likes of Saul Alvarez. Ishida told The Ring’s Doug Fischer, “[Williams] comes to fight and he doesn’t always use his reach, which is good for me. I’m going to be right there. Normally, I use my jab and move around the ring. I try to use my height and box. But when I’m the underdog, I know I have to fight.”
Paul Williams – Ending up on the wrong end of the “Knockout of the Year” created doubts about this elongated volume puncher who, until that loss, was considered a top 10 pound-for-pound boxer. Given a 6’1” frame and 82-inch reach, Williams could compete comfortably up to super middleweight but needs to reestablish his brand after three consecutive bad performances. Williams will never overshadow golf in his hometown of Augusta but has pitched himself out of the rough in the game of life. Began boxing at age eight and despite spending 10 years in the amateurs, had less than 50 bouts without winning national honors. In the pros, has driven opponents crazy with his phenomenal length and reach that Williams maximizes with the ability to throw nearly 100 punches a round when allowed to come forward. For four years, took a slow developmental path under the radar after which Williams won a 10-round decision against fellow prospect Luis Hernandez. Confirmed his arrival by knocking out Olympic bronze medalist Terrance Cauthen, rocketing to the top with wins over Antonio Margarito, Winky Wright, Kermit Cintron and Sergio Martinez. Had an unexpected setback against Carlos Quintana but violently erased that with a first round kayo in their rematch. Is a fighter who prefers to meet opponents in the center of the ring but has shown the versatility to employ a “Plan B” though Williams needs a couple rounds to warm up, finding his rhythm and distance as the rounds progress. For a tall guy with a persistent jab, Williams takes more punches than expected, mostly because of a lack of head movement and penchant for coming straight at opponents. Could be more successful employing a boring style, ala the Klitschkos or Lennox Lewis, but presses offensive advantages. If there is an offensive weakness, it’s an inability to cut off the ring or move in wider swaths, laterally. Like a large battleship, Williams needs room to turn and move which has been exposed by speedy or shrewd ring technicians. Despite fighting at middleweight, never weighed above 157 pounds for a fight. Says of himself and this fight, “They will always try and write you off but I will show them that I’m not done. Every time I get into the ring, I try to make a statement.” Williams is 30 years old but still lacks a substantial fan base working with no hometown advantage despite facing quality opposition. That willingness to fight anyone can make fighters great or relegate them to history’s dustbin. Williams’ final destination remains uncertain.
Verdict – Williams has not been gun-shy after the Martinez kayo and despite Williams’ size, he has always been relatively easy to hit chasing after foes. Ishida has a cleaner jab than Williams but is more judicious with it, making every punch count. This will allow Williams to fill the void with punches and judges appreciate volume over accuracy in close fights. That is why I leans toward Williams in a tight contest, though Ishida never stops trying but cannot escape Williams’ jab and right-hand leads. In the end, Williams outworks Ishida, riding out the occasional sharp connect. If Ishida does better than I expect, in connect percentage and power shots, I still expect Williams’ aggression to sway the judges in his favor. I do not discount Ishida winning by hunting and pecking his way to a points win but do not put much trust in Texas judges. I like Williams by two points on all three judges’ scorecards.
Gabriel Campillo – The Spanish world traveler is not shy about accepting challenges, entering hostile rings in Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Denmark and America in search of wins. Those experiences have turned Campillo into a hardened warhorse, both on the physical and mental level, refusing to back down or change in the face of questionable judging. Campillo’s record is dotted with a couple setbacks and a draw, though only bested once with his other losses coming via split and majority decisions on the road. This veteran southpaw is not without merit, talent or accomplishments. Campillo is a former European champion, first coming to my attention traveling to Argentina and befuddling former champ Hugo Garay with movement and accurate counterpunching. The lanky stylist won the European title on the road as well, outpointing Lolenga Mock in Denmark. Is a tough-minded sort who does not mind hearing boos from fans wanting more excitement or their hometown favorite to emerge with a win. Calls himself a pure boxer and he has the mental strength to stick with his plan and slowly draw foes into his traps. Opponents falter mostly at Campillo’s sense of timing and accuracy, deftly countering leads with slight lateral or upper body movements that set up short counters. Campillo showed those strengths against strong champion Beibut Shumenov, dropping Shumenov in the 12th and sweeping the championship rounds. He can get inattentive, dropped by Vyacheslav Uzelkov, Shumenov and Mock but has good recuperative powers, knowing when to rally and stop a foe’s momentum. Like a great coach, Campillo spots tendencies and mistakes and has just enough speed to capitalize on them. A reflexive fighter, though slowing at age 33, because Campillo does not lead much, lacks stopping power (31% kayo ratio) and ability to push foes backwards. Campillo has shown the ability to box backward but this can hurt him in the eyes of judges who sometimes miss subtle moves and counters. Has sought out the guidance of trainer Pablo Sarmiento, known for his work with middleweight champion Sergio Martinez, to add an experienced voice to his corner and provide finishing touches to training camps. Campillo seems invigorated by the association and the preparatory work for this fight, “I’m going to win the fight because of three things. I’m in better physical condition than him. I have better speed and I have more intelligence.” After years of frustratingly chasing champions, the hope tonight is that Campillo finally creates his own breaks.
Tavoris Cloud – An angry 30 year old upstart with an 83% kayo ratio is hard to ignore, unless you are a name light heavyweight like Bernard Hopkins or Chad Dawson. In fact, Cloud won his IBF title, defeating hardnosed Englishman Clinton Woods, after Dawson relinquished his title rather than face Cloud. For a comparison, picture a faster and more muscular Brandon Rios but lacking a bit of Rios’ unrelenting forward progress. Where Rios marches forward, Cloud will stop to survey the field and assess damage done before resuming the attack. Before winning an alphabet belt, Cloud fought like he was in a hurry, taking the straightest line at opponents to maximum effect. That changed slightly as a champion; now more experienced and calm, Cloud paces himself through bursts of power instead of a constant stream of punches. Is possessed of a tremendous work ethic and burning ambition to help his family escape poverty. In 2008, Cloud delivered on his first step up in class, stopping Julio Cesar Gonzalez in 10 one-sided rounds. It was an impressive beatdown of a top-notch gatekeeper, marking Cloud as a borderline contender. Until that point, Cloud was stopping Midwest journeyman types; none went more than five rounds and only 300-fight veteran Reggie Strickland lasted four rounds. Beating veteran titlist Clinton Woods showed Cloud could think in the ring, choosing to win on hand speed when it was obvious Woods had the chin to last the distance. Power is Cloud’s main asset but he hides big punches with a flashing jab that pays off with a speedy right hand down the middle. Is fast enough to lead with a hook as well and punches equally hard with either hand. Has a tendency to headhunt but has not been forced to wear down an opponent since his aggression controls fights. Cloud’s solid defense is underrated since his offense overshadows everything else. The only negative is a lack of activity, fighting once in 2009 and 2011 and only two times in 2008 and 2010. At 5’10”, Cloud is a little on the short side for a light heavyweight but showed in a win over warhorse Glen Johnson that it does not limit his punching options since Cloud is willing to take a punch to deliver two of his own. Eight months of ring rust need to be shaken off and perhaps hesitancy produced by fighting such a slippery southpaw. Cloud doubts this, “There ain’t going to be no ducking and dodging. I’m going to go straight to my opponent. I’m just here to do my job and to take out anyone they put in front of me.”
Verdict – A classic brawler-versus-boxer matchup with the man who can force his style on the other destined to win. In a way, the stylistic matchup favors Campillo since he wants an aggressive opponent to come at him and throw punches. That is what he gets with Cloud but can Campillo get the judges to acknowledge smarter blows between Cloud’s more numerous punches? I doubt that and favor a Cloud who has the legs to cut off the ring and keep Campillo in range for his power game. Occasionally, Campillo makes Cloud look clumsy and snaps his head back but on a whole, judges witness an advancing Cloud landing the more telling blows. In the end, volume beats accuracy with Cloud’s power impressing the judges more than Campillo’s swift counters.
Prediction record for 2012: 86% (12-2)
Prediction record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
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