Juan Estrada – Hard-charging Mexican did himself a favor by traveling the ten-round distance for the first time in his last fight but has otherwise stopped 11 of his 13 victims. At first glance, looks like Acelino Freitas facially when he smiles and, from newspaper reports, has a similarly devastating punch. His résumé only shows one good win, a first-round destruction over veteran Marino Montiel. It is the fashion in which Estrada takes apart his foes that has impressed audiences. Is a patient puncher and does not lunge or rush to take large steps invading an opponent’s space because his hand speed gives Estrada options on offense. Is built like a miniature version of Erik Morales, with a lean torso and little muscle definition in the chest that packs obvious power, nonetheless. Goes to the body with venom, stepping to the side to land his shots like Ricky Hatton instead of bending at the waist to gain extension like most Mexican boxers. Sorry about namedropping three famous boxers so far but this kid is a good mimic. Has a couple of fifth and sixth-round stoppages, another sign of his preparatory work so Estrada carries decent power as the rounds progress. Weighed in at 111 pounds for this fight, when he had been as high as 118, a year ago. This shows Estrada is putting in serious effort preparing for this fight at his gym, which looks like an abandoned building from the outside- and little better on the inside- in a video I viewed. The kid is barely a two-year pro, had nine fights last year, and could earn a trip north of the border with an impressive victory tonight.
Verdict – I am not one to judge sight unseen so Rodriguez holds little appeal to me. Estrada is a legit prospect, given his footage, against obviously inferior opponents, and can get to Rodriguez with either speed or power. Because I know nothing of Rodriguez, I will assume Estrada’s team does, and know Rodriguez will make their man look good in his American TV debut and I’ll predict a stoppage before the fourth round.
Michael Arango – I need to check the statistics but Colombians might make up the bulk of opponents imported for cable boxing shows on ESPN2, Telefutura, and FOX Sports Espanol. Like many of his countrymen, Arango is a reputed puncher, 59% kayo ratio, who racked up the bulk of his stoppages against novice opposition in Colombia and struggles to win once he crosses Colombian borders. Arango has a record of 1-4 outside of Colombia, with his lone win a stoppage over a 4-3-2 foe but it is duly noted that he only struggles against high-caliber opposition. However, Arango has not beaten anyone with a winning record in seven years, the best he can claim is two draws against good opponents. Has a notable win over recent WBA champion Cesar Canchila in 2003 but research reveals that victory came via injury (ironically Arango lost to Canchila almost three years later via fourth-round stoppage) and not a legitimate stoppage. Is an 11-year veteran with a solid skill set and skinny frame that looks barbwire tough. Last year put up a good fight with Ronald Barrera, earning a ten-round draw, forcing the tempo and successfully mauling Barrera on the inside. Despite good reach, prefers to fight inside where he has surprisingly short punches which loop the more Arango fights at distance. Lack of volume on the inside hurts Arango and his game plan; because of this, Arango is often separated by the referee or shouldered off by opponents before he can land his blows. Has hidden yet fading hand speed by getting in opponents chests, which is doubly wise, given his poor defense and slowing reflexes. I give Arango credit for trying to conceal his flaws and work within his limitations. Still, you can only cover up so much.
Manuel Vargas – Is most remembered for moving up in weight as a last-minute replacement against champion and pound-for-pound entrant Nonito Donaire six months ago. Was not a bad substitute, given three days notice but obviously not prepared and stopped in three rounds. Vargas is another Mexican fighter who came up the hard way losing two of his first three fights as a pro as well as his two fights outside of Mexico. His lone real title bout was a split decision setback to Donnie Nietes, a year ago, where Vargas had early success but could not make use of his height and reach advantage in the late rounds. Vargas took too many punches and did not vary his punches to prevent Nietes from seeing and countering his offense. ESPN2 viewers saw Vargas in a close and entertaining decision loss to Rayonta Whitfield, where the hometown boy got favorable but not unwarranted judging. Rebounded from that setback and back into the title picture with a fourth round kayo of Daniel Reyes and a win over future title challenger Walter Tello. Is a hard-to-discourage volume puncher who does his best work when allowed to get on the inside and bang to the body, arms and head. If it moves in the ring, Vargas will throw a punch at it. Outside of the Whitfield setback, he only lost to titleholders in the last eight years and is just past his physical prime at age 29. Despite stoppage to Donaire, Vargas has a sturdy chin and is quicker of foot and hand than most volume punchers. Can be outthought but is nearly impossible to discourage from advancing and a good in-fighter, given his husky frame, that reminds me of Humberto “Chiquita” Gonzalez. Vargas has faced a similar level of competition to Arango but looked much better and well-rounded in those fights.
Verdict – This should be an entertaining bout, given both men’s penchant for working on the inside and I hope the referee does not separate them prematurely. Though Arango wants this type of fight, it is Vargas who is more suited for it and, given his body and superior overall strength, should emerge with the win. In the middle rounds, the older Arango will need a breather and some space; don’t look for Vargas to accommodate and charge at Arango to score a knockdown on the backpedaling Colombian. From that point forth, Vargas is moving forward and picks Arango apart for a wide decision win.
At The Scottrade Center, Saint Louis, MO
(HBO) Devon Alexander (20-0) vs. Andriy Kotelnik (31-3-1)
(The Ring magazine #2 junior welterweight vs. #7)
(WBC & IBF junior welterweight belts)
(HBO) Tavoris Cloud (20-0) vs. Glen Johnson (50-13-2)
(The Ring magazine #5 light heavyweight vs. #2)
(IBF light heavyweight belt)
Glen Johnson – How good and consistent is Glen Johnson? The Jamaican expatriate has been rated in The Ring magazine’s top-ten at light heavyweight for the last 373 weeks! An old war horse of a fighter who learned and earned his way into the top-ten by facing contenders and champions in their hometowns. This has lead him to become the victim of more than a couple hometown decisions. Johnson was not dissuaded and continued to work at improving and putting lessons learned into his repertoire of tricks. Consider him 41 years young, remaining as quick with his mind as fists. Career accomplishments are equally impressive, considering that he did not start boxing until his late teens and much of Johnson’s learning was done on the job. Lands punches accurately, despite a lack of hand speed, slowly reeling in opponents and looking better and better as the rounds progress. It’s the accumulation of landed punches that take a toll on opponents, both physically and mentally, with victims confused as to how punches are connecting when they are doing the right things to avoid them. Johnson simply has the master key, figuring out opponents by trial and error in the opening sequences and rounds. If a punch lands, you can be sure Johnson took note of it and will throw it again at the appropriate time. Has only been stopped once in a 65-fight/ 432-round career by Bernard Hopkins, displaying mental strength by rebounding from two losing streaks of three or more bouts. Johnson’s hard work culminated when he was named The Ring magazine’s “Fighter of the Year” in 2004, defeating top-ten rated Clinton Woods, Antonio Tarver, and Roy Jones. In his last fight, six months ago, Johnson blew out Yusaf Mack on ESPN2 to earn this opportunity on HBO. It is his acceptance of having to work harder for less that makes Johnson such a blue-collar hero. Mr. Johnson is a perfect example of how squaring off against the best is rewarded down the road.
Tavoris Cloud - A 28-year-old upstart with a 90% kayo ratio is hard to ignore, unless your name is Chad Dawson and Cloud is the mandatory contender. Which is why Cloud was left to win the vacated title against hardnosed Englishman Clinton Woods. Cloud is the kind of youthful injection of excitement the elderly light heavyweight division is in desperate need of. Picture a faster and more muscular Fernando Angulo but lacking a bit of Angulo’s unrelenting forward progress. Cloud will stop to survey the field and assess damage done before resuming the attack. Before winning an alphabet belt in his last fight, Cloud fought like he was in a hurry, taking the straightest line at opponents to maximum effect. I do not expect that to change, given his reported work ethic and a burning ambition to help his family escape poverty. In 2008, Cloud delivered on his first step up in class, stopping Julio Cesar Gonzalez in ten one-sided rounds. It was an impressive beatdown of a top-notch gatekeeper, marking Cloud as a borderline contender. Until that point, Cloud had been stopping Midwest journeyman types; none went more than five rounds and only 300-fight veteran Reggie Strickland lasted the distance in a four-round fight. The win over veteran titlist Clinton Woods showed Cloud can think in the ring, choosing to keep space and win on hand speed when it was obvious Woods had the chin to last the distance. Power is obviously Cloud’s main asset but he hides big punches with a flashing jab that pays off with a speedy right hand down the middle. Is fast enough too and does lead with a hook as well, and punches equally hard with either hand. Has a tendency to head-hunt but has not been forced to wear down an opponent since he has controlled every fight. Cloud’s defense is underrated, slipped many punches from Gonzalez and Woods, since his offense overshadows everything else. The only negative I can point to is a lack of activity. Cloud enters his last two fights off of 12-month layoffs; a fighter of his youth and early stoppages should average at least four bouts a year. It is also impossible to establish a fan following fighting once a year. At 5’10”, Cloud is a little on the short side for a light heavyweight. There could be some ring rust to be shaken off, and perhaps hesitancy produced by fighting such a respected foe based in his home state. As an aside, the nickname of “Thunder” was just too easy to pass up for Cloud’s marketing team. Let’s hope it strikes more than once a year from now on.
Verdict – I am a big fan of Johnson but, at his age, Johnson needs a young champion like Cloud to accept his terms in a fight…which is to slow the pace down and make it a medium-range engagement. At distance, Cloud will beat Johnson to the punch and on the inside, Cloud has more vigor using his upper body strength to hold or push of Johnson when needed. Where Johnson has a chance is catching Cloud as he walks forward or just as the referee releases the duo and Johnson can charge in before Cloud resets himself. What hurts Johnson the most is that Cloud punches hard with either hand, where the crafty veteran has negated a foe’s best hand with simple lateral movement in other fights. If I believed Cloud at any point in training took Johnson lightly or was overconfident, I would back Johnson to win. But this is a focused young champion whose only negative is his lack of rounds to season him. Look for Cloud to overcome some rough middle rounds to win a close but obvious decision
.
Andriy Kotelnik – The Ukrainian has never been anybody’s favorite, despite a stellar amateur career and the determination he displayed earning a world title after two previous setbacks on the global stage. There is no clamor for or glamour around Kotelnik. This, despite an amateur pedigree, to include an Olympic silver medal, 135-15 record, and two European championship titles. Andriy Kotelnik might never become the people’s champion but once the masses see him, he will be appreciated for the workmanlike performances he puts forth. I cannot point to one area of Kotelnik’s skill set that makes anyone’s jaw drop, nor is there anything in his punches that compels the senses. The most positive description I can conjure up for Kotelnik is that he is slyly effective. A measured output of punches slowly turns a fight in Kotelnik’s favor and opponents seem oblivious to their losing ground on the judges’ scorecards. I compare it to a frog that is slowly boiled by the steadily increasing heat of the boiling water. By the time an opponent realizes the situation he is in, it’s too late. It is not always thrilling to watch but Kotelnik has beaten some very good fighters in this manner. On the occasions that he has been challenged, Kotelnik covers up instinctively at first but rebounds seconds later to throw a counterpunch or combination. Stands 5´ 7½” but Kotelnik does not have a thick upper body or superior musculature around the chest. Kotelnik has a 37% kayo ratio, 13 knockouts in seven years, and only has two stoppage wins in his last 16 fights when his competition was seriously upped. Most will be surprised that Kotelnik’s favorite boxer is Mike Tyson, since Kotelnik is composed with intimidation and brute force playing no part in his ring persona. The 33-year-old Ukrainian began boxing at age six and is not likely to be intimidated by the situation. Over a ten-year pro career has fought in hostile places like Poland, Hungary, Venezuela, France, and England, so an American trip should not impose on him mentally. Kotelnik defeated Marcos Maidana over 12 hard rounds early last year and Americans have a new appreciation for how impressive that win is in hindsight.
Devon Alexander – A young, enthusiastic 23-year-old champion who is one of the few Don King boxers whose star is on the rise. Has just surpassed the 100-round mark on his odometer but shown plenty in terms of skills, potential, reflexes, and done so with style points. Turned pro before leaving high school and, overall, Alexander has a sense of maturity- in and out of the ring- beyond his years. This is Alexander’s 21st pro fight but he was an outstanding amateur since age seven. Came up in the celebrated St. Louis amateur system, a three-time national PAL champ, U.S. National champ, and represented America in many international tourneys. Went 300-10 as an amateur and lost a controversial decision (via tiebreaker) to Rock Allen in the U.S. Olympic trials. A tactician whose speed is accentuated by composed movement and great vision of the target. Can develop into a boxer along the lines of Fernando Montiel or current junior welterweight rival Timothy Bradley. Won his first title by calmly defeating Junior Witter, even though the English spoiler turned the fight into an ugly affair. In first defense, scored a spectacular uppercut stoppage of one-dimensional, iron-chinned slugger Juan Urango. Before turning his attention to world-caliber boxers, Alexander stopped limited opposition with few problems, often on a jab and superior speed alone. However, a lack of offensive imagination showed itself in distance wins against the more experienced DeMarcus Corley, Miguel Callist, and the aforementioned Witter. Nothing wrong with that but it should be a warning to the southpaw and others not to overinflate his stock just yet. On defense, rarely gets hit with anything big but did show good whiskers riding out some hooks he seemed to bait Urango with, in hindsight. With his reflexes and sense of space, could stink out the ring and win easy decisions but Alexander seems to want to please the crowd. I am concerned that Alexander has been overly talkative in the pre-fight build up and hope he is not trying to morph into a Mayweather figure to earn more money by projecting a controversial image. There is much to like about “Alexander the Great,” who has quickly developed into a worthy challenger to Timothy Bradley at 140 pounds. Boxing purists should salivate at the thought of that matchup.
Verdict - Kotelnik is the exact opposite of what Alexander faced last time out and a more dangerous foe because of his experience and intelligent style. Juan Urango was a straight-ahead slugger with little variety, so Alexander is getting a good ring education in terms of variety as the newly-minted champ. I am swayed by Kotelnik’s own words months ago before this fight was made, when he insisted a tune-up fight was needed before facing another world champion. When Kotelnik has suffered defeats, it was because of speed, not power. I am not talking about hand speed either; it is with the feet where Kotelnik suffers. Was unable to cut off the ring against Khan, taking long steps into his jab or short steps into straight right hands. Kotelnik prefers to counterpunch and will need Alexander’s cooperation in that department. Amir Khan’s trainer Freddie Roach broke down Kotelnik before that fight. "Kotelnik has a very good jab and a good right hand also; he is very good at everything he does but he does those things a little too often. I think we can take advantage of this.” Alexander is a smart fighter and will pick up on those tendencies to win a clear points victory. I can see Alexander pressing early but trainer Kevin Cunningham will reel him in and focus the champ into staying out of harm’s way and working the angles patiently. I like Alexander by nine rounds to three.
Prediction record for 2010 to date: 82% (154-33)
You can email Gabriel at maxgmontoya@gmail.com, follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/gabriel_montoya and catch him on each Monday’s episode of “The Next Round” with Steve Kim or tune into hear him live on Thursdays at 5-8 PM PST when he co-hosts the BlogTalk radio show Leave-It-In-The-Ring.com. Gabriel is a full member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.
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