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The ESPN2 Friday Night Fights TV Cheat Sheet- July 6, 2012
Tonight’s ESPN2 presentation promises excitement, given a potential star in Javier Fortuna and an intriguing Russian heavyweight who has knocked out every one of his opponents. Better yet, both face adversaries whose styles and superior experience should challenge both favorites. No one is guaranteed an easy win, which is the key to good matchmaking for the fans and prospects. The storylines are familiarly compelling, with a young slugger taking on a veteran former champion and two hard-punching heavyweights with defensive flaws engaging in a crossroads-type bout. A perfect appetizer for a big weekend of fights on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, which features three world title fights and top 10-rated boxers by The Ring magazine in action.
At the Hard Rock Casino, Las Vegas, NV
(ESPN2) Javier Fortuna (19-0) vs. Cristobal Cruz (39-13-3)
(ESPN2) Magomed Abdusalamov (14-0) vs. Maurice Byarm (13-1-1)
Maurice Byarm – A thudding puncher and aspiring southpaw earned the nickname “Freight Train,” blowing away soft opposition before suffering only loss to a then-unheralded Bryant Jennings by decision. Sports natural power, stopping nine of 13 victims, and showed he can go 10 hard against Jennings. Byarm is hard to derail once he gets a head of steam or when allowed to come at foes in a straight line. Raised in Philadelphia, Byarm moved to Washington D.C. in 2010 to spar with the likes of hot prospect Seth Mitchell and live near his promoter. Comes from a boxing family; father Lionel fought Evander Holyfield (ironically, Holyfield is Maurice’s favorite boxer) but Maurice had no interest in boxing until age 19. Unfortunately, Byarm had a run-in with the law, leading to jail time for drug possession, delaying his progress. To Byarm’s credit, he earned a high school degree in prison and overcame the experience through boxing. Focused and on the right path, Byarm concentrated on gym work in the amateurs (only fighting 10 bouts), suffering one loss to English contender Tyson Fury. Byarm’s style is suited for the pro game, pressing forward behind a two-fisted attack that is effective but repetitive. Byarm is quick, not fast, slowing considerably in combination sequences, able to reach a target with one quick punch rather than working behind a consistent jab. Benefits from being a lefty, starting fast to maximize that advantage and works the body. Unlike other American heavyweights, is not hook-crazy, generally finishing foes with a straight right hand. Puts forth solid work rate, taking small steps to stay on balance and works either hand. Looks uncomfortable throwing from a distance, sometimes leaping in instead of letting the punch go straight. Defense is average and, again, footwork is not optimum, leaning back to avoid punches instead of moving his feet. Balance is not ideal for an average size heavyweight, stocky with thick arms and low center of gravity, though Byarm uses his shoulder to block punches while turning away. Weight progression is encouraging, turning pro at 265 pounds and working down to 244½ pounds. Byarm described his style to Chip Mitchell, “I believe in controlled aggression. I’m gonna put the pressure on you. I’m gonna check your gas tank. I’m aggressive but I like to control it.”
Magomed Abdusalamov – Russian knockout artist has stopped every opponent, modeling his style after favorite boxer George Foreman. A southpaw with solid amateur credentials and approximately 60 bouts, winning two national titles. He did not take boxing seriously until age 22 when a knee injury derailed his kickboxing career. Missed Olympic qualifying when beaten by bronze medalist and current English heavyweight prospect David Price, a loss Abdusalamov is eager to avenge. At 6’3” and a trim 225 pounds, Abdusalamov is an average size heavyweight who possesses natural brute power and quickness that gets the most out of his not overly muscular frame (not well-defined, looking a bit like Larry Holmes). At age 31, is being fast tracked but managerial problems cost him a year and he only fought three times in 2010 and 2011 hindering development. Was coached by Pablo Sarmiento (of Sergio Martinez fame but manager says he lacked time for Abdusalamov and there were language problems) but now trains with Danny Garcia who received more scrutiny after another Victor Ortiz collapse. Abdusalamov is extremely dedicated in the gym, working his way down from debut weight of 263 pounds to 221½ pounds, sparring with veterans Oliver McCall and Fres Oquendo. This has enhanced impressive hand and foot speed and despite only going four rounds, few question his stamina. Churns forward incessantly looking for openings, a stalker in every sense of the word who is showing ability to cut off the ring. Keeps hands high while advancing in European style, extended from his chest like Kostya Tszyu, but worryingly drops hands low on defense and backs out of engagements in straight lines. Abdusalamov possesses offensive weapons but needs to sharpen them through timing and accuracy. Straight left is most dangerous punch but Abdusalamov is quick enough to lead with a short right hook. Lacks body punching and defensive head movement, putting on earmuffs and covering with both hands high instead of moving or holding. Hit consistently with right hands by out-of-shape Pedro Rodriguez, showing a decent chin. Level of opposition is average but Abdusalamov has upped that level in his last three fights, knocking off two undefeated adversaries. Ten foes went out in first round and he stopped a Rich Power who went the distance with Tyson Fury. Abdusalamov is an intriguing heavyweight with natural power but can he build on that to become a real threat?
Verdict – A tough fight to predict since Byarm showed limitations against Bryant Jennings but that fight also made Byarm better and prepared him for this challenge. Abdusalamov is slightly quicker on the trigger and seems better-rounded despite never going past four rounds. Another aspect that worries me since I am picking Abdusalamov is that I am unsure if he can fight off his back foot if forced to. What wins Abdusalamov this fight is superior volume and perhaps a knockdown in the middle rounds that forces Byarm to think more and stop coming forward. I am counting on Abdusalamov having that extra gear Byarm did not show against Bryant Jennings, which should allow the Russian to maintain a quick pace and wrest momentum back after losing some early rounds. It might be controversial but Abdusalamov’s aggression and volume beats Byarm’s superior style and connect percentage.
Cristobal Cruz - It’s impossible to root against Cruz; the Mexican has come up the hard way and unlike most, improved after each loss. Cruz peaked from 2008 to 2010, putting together an impressive undefeated run with four wins in his opponents’ hometowns, winning the IBF featherweight belt in the process. Grew up in a boxing family (all six brothers boxed) establishing 54-8 amateur record before turning pro at age 15. Cruz is a smothering high-volume boxer but leaves defensive holes with often looping punches that lack form. When Cruz wins, it is usually a hectic fight and I have never seen him go down meekly in a loss despite some lopsided scores. If Cruz had been born with better hand speed or strength, his work ethic might well have made him a respected champion in the vein of a Chris John. Since 1997, Cruz has only lost to quality fighters and never mentally quit even when hopelessly behind on the cards. At 5’7” with a 68-inch reach, has good size for a featherweight, making up for slowing reflexes and at age 35, this is Cruz’s last title run. It does not help Cruz that he either squeaks out wins or takes many punches trying to press minimal advantages. Possesses a rangy body and quality footwork to keep him in the face of opponents but Cruz lacks accuracy and flash to separate himself despite an expert right hand. Cruz has logged 432 hard rounds; his odometer is being stretched and three of his last four bouts ended with Cruz cut. A 41% kayo ratio is about right since his jab is not crisp and most of Cruz’s punches are detectable thus lessening their impact. Cruz times punches well and is not afraid to make a fight ugly, using elbows or wrestling on the inside. Defense is an afterthought with Cruz but he has only been stopped twice (early in his career) and cuts are more of a concern for the scar tissue-laden Cruz than incoming punches. In his fight against prospect Art Hovhannisyan, Cruz was having his way before a clash of heads created a nasty cut, forcing a technical draw in the fourth. Cruz is an overachiever who has seen everything and will not be surprised by anything Fortuna brings to the table. At what point experience turns into old age is hard to say but you can be sure Cruz will fight that to the end as well.
Javier Fortuna – Free-swinging Dominican fights like a Berserker sometimes but gets away with it, suggesting his wild style is more controlled and planned than it appears. Looked fantastic blowing out fellow prospect Yuandale Evans in one round and Fortuna is improving with each outing, showing he is not resting on his laurels in training. Started boxing at age nine, representing his country at international tourneys, fighting over 150 bouts and winning medals despite a pro style. The best way to describe Fortuna is vibrant, sporting an intoxicating mix of speed and power combined with the fearlessness to throw punches from vulnerable positions. Punches have an added advantage of coming from a southpaw stance, impacting from sharp angles foes cannot calculate in time to avoid given their velocity. Fortuna is not just a spectacular kayo artist, going 10 rounds with experienced Miguel Roman, showing solid countering skills and even patience. He is 5’7” tall, using sinewy arms to deliver whip-like punches that seem to unfurl just enough to land every time. Does leave himself open for counters, which could be trouble against a veteran former champion like Cruz but Fortuna brings up his guard when in range and his youthful instincts and reflexes are saving graces on defense against counterpunches. Needs to work on moving his head, which is stationary and erect at times when concentrating on offense. Showed scary killer instincts against undefeated Victor Valenzuela and Evans and in other fights, pounced on weaknesses in an instant. Has gone 10 rounds twice with no hint of stamina problem and looked comfortable fighting on his back foot when needed, showing complexity. A 70% kayo ratio is legitimate, stemming from an overwhelming combination of speed and aggression more than pure punching power. Trained by Pablo Sarmiento, who has an accomplished record of getting the most out of unconventional southpaws like Sergio Martinez, whose work Fortuna admires and replicates in the gym. Fighting an average of six times a year keeps the 22-year-old Fortuna sharp, though this is only his second fight of 2012, and he has no problem making the featherweight limit despite turning pro at lightweight. Fortuna told Maxboxing’s own Gabriel Montoya that his style is a mix of two current pound-for-pound entrants, “I like to fight like Floyd Mayweather and ‘Maravilla’ Martinez fight. I like to fight in those styles.” As exciting as he is reckless, Fortuna is the type of fighter who will either explode into stardom or go down in flames.
Verdict – Speed is the key separator between these two and no amount of experience Cruz brings to the table allows him to keep up with Fortuna. Cruz will do his best to make it a mauling affair but Fortuna has the ability and intelligence to fight at a distance. Cruz is proud and showed against prospect Art Hovhannisyan that he remains dangerous but older fighters are more susceptible to speed than power. Fortuna has both in excess. Another big problem for Cruz is a tendency to cut and given Fortuna’s slicing punches, I can’t see Cruz’s skin holding up for 10 rounds. Whether by clean kayo or bad cut, Cruz is going down and probably before the sixth round.
Prediction record for 2012: 83% (64-13)
Prediction record in 2011: 88% (138-19)
Prediction record in 2010: 85% (218-40)
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