Saturday Night Fights Cheat Sheet

Jesus Silvestre – The Mexican has never beaten an opponent with more than 14 victories, and his last three opponents have a combined record (as best we can tell) of 2-24-1. Silvestre is also a third choice, with previous opponents Ivan Meneses and Sammy Gutierrez reportedly falling out over lack of monetary compensation. There a couple of clips of Silvestre on Youtube, and from those he looks to have some skills. His do seem a bit too wide and telegraphed, which allowed him to get countered by his opponent on more than one occasion. On the positive side Silvestre did ride out those punches with little problems. Silvestre certainly commits to his punches with intensity, and continued to go to the body in the late rounds. Does seem to get a little too left hand happy, and his right hand is largely looping. Is not particularly quick, but he makes up for it by punching in combinations. The Youtube bout is against his best opponent, 10-0-1 Carlos Velarde, as well. A lone loss was to currently undefeated jr. flyweight prospect Jose Rodriguez, in which Silvestre suffered one knock down during the unanimous decision loss. Only four of his opponents have had winning records (he lost to one and won a split decision to another), and this will be Silvestre’s first trip outside of Mexico.

Donnie Nietes - The 28-year-old speedster looked fantastic in his first trip outside of the Philippines, traveling to Mexico and dominating Erik Ramirez in his second title defense eleven months ago. Returned to Mexico in September to win a hard fought split decision over slick Manuel Vargas. Silvestre marks Nietes third straight Mexican opponent, but at least he gets to fight Silvestre at home. Nietes is a fast starter who uses speed to unsettle opponents early, then falls into a counterpunching strategy as the fights wears on to outwit opponents taking chances to catch up on the scorecards. Has an all around arsenal of offense, and his defense is solid as well. Does not have a ton of power, 48% kayo ratio, and has subpar finishing skills given that he knocks many opponents down but fails to finish hurt foes. Followed his Uncle into boxing, and is part of The Philippines highly respected ALA Gym stable of boxers. Lone loss was a split decision to Angky Angkota, in Indonesia, six years ago. One negative is that Nietes has only fought three times in the last two years, but early start to this year suggests he could get three title defenses in 2010. Nietes is a solid but not overly impressive world titlist, who should come into this bout ready having reportedly sparred over 150 rounds in preparation. His team has watched tapes of Silvestre, and stated in a Manila newspaper report that Silvestre’s left uppercut is the punch that concerned them the most.

Result – There are no easy fights in the lighter weight classes, especially at 105 pounds, so I do not expect Nietes to take Silvestre for granted. The two clear advantages Nietes has are in handspeed and quality of opposition, I would also say Nietes is the better overall boxer. Silvestre enters with a punchers chance, but because his punches are so wide and predictable I do not think he can land with any consistency. Nietes also has a sturdy chin, so I expect him to roll with and overcome any sudden shifts in momentum. I doubt Nietes has the power or finishing skills to get rid of Silvestre, but a nine or ten point victory on the cards is well in reach of the champ.

Carlos Tamara – A standout amateur boxer, who represented Colombia in the 2004 Olympics and won a Silver medal at the Pan American games losing to future Olympic champion Yan Barthelemy of Cuba. Considering his success in the amateurs, which rewards accuracy and speed, Tamara has done well in the pro’s in terms of power. Of Tamara’s 20 wins, fourteen have come via kayo. Has fought in three different countries, and his chin has stood up in stern tests having never been stopped or knocked down. Already had one shot at the WBO flyweight title, losing every round against undervalued Omar Andrade, and lost to American prospects  Rayonta Whitfield & Giovanni Segura. At 26-years old Tamara is in his prime, and he beat a useful Juan Esquer in his last fight against a good opponent. But that was back in June of 2008. Since then has beaten a 0-16-1 Nelson Cantero and 14-22-4 Alfonso De la Hoz in 2009, which “earned” this title opportunity. Got to see Tamara on Telemundo once, and he is an aggressive fighter who is dangerous when allowed to come forward. Has pretty quick hands too, and because of this does not target the body much. Relies on his chin too much on defense, and is hit by punches he seems capable of avoiding with a little more lateral movement.

Brian Viloria – For years I desperately waited for Viloria to finally deliver on his potential. Perhaps, at age 29, he has now matured into the world champion I had envisioned him to be back in 2005. Following this boxer, whom I tabbed as a Val Baker trophy winner (awarded to the best boxer of the tourney) way back in the 2000 Olympics, has resulted in a series of disappointments. Which were followed by performances that hinted at his having finally put everything together. Frustrating! There is no doubt Viloria has the physical talent, and I understand that at jr. flyweight there are very few easy fights. The Hawaiian punch has the power to knock guys out, or go the speed route and box around tougher chinned foes. Which is what he relied upon when he moved up to flyweight in 2008, and outpointed five ordinary opponents. Viloria came down in weight to knock out a very good champion in Ulises Solis for the title, and followed that up with the obligatory hometown walkover first defense against useful Jesus Iribe. I hope Viloria can still turn into the type of champion many had predicted him to be all along. Maybe the Solis win created that mental change to put Viloria over the top and turn him into a special champion?

Result – I would be surprised if Viloria stops Tamara, but more surprised if he loses to Tamara. O.K, not shocked because Viloria has a history of underperforming or fighting down to the level of his opposition. Still, Tamara is sufficiently flawed on defense to ensure Viloria opportunities to strike and score points. I am interested to see how Viloria does on the defensive front, where he can still be a bit lazy and ineffectual. Tamara does not commit enough to the body to slow Viloria down, and is not good enough with his feet to make use of a slight height advantage. I like Viloria by six to seven points, and expect to lose a couple middle rounds at most.

At Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
(HBO) Steven Luevano (37-1-1) vs. Juan Manuel Lopez (27-0)
(The Ring Magazine #2 Featherweight vs. #3 Jr. Featherweight)
(WBO Featherweight belt)
(HBO) Yuriorkis Gamboa (16-0) vs. Rogers Mtagwa (26-13-2)
(The Ring Magazine #10 Featherweight vs. Unranked)

Rogers Mtagwa – Based on his overall record (and perhaps even talent) this trough little Tanzanian transplant might not deserve a title shot, but on merit Mtagwa’s exciting and unrelenting style has more than earned him an opportunity to fight for a championship again. Anyone who watched Mtagwa’s see-saw battle with Tomas Villa, a clash that got serious consideration for fight of the year in 2008, understands Mtagwa should never be counted out in a fight. In his last fight Mtagwa pushed Juan Manuel Lopez to the edge, nearly scoring an upset hurting Lopez in final couple rounds, in a fight that can be called a minor classic. I have not seen a Mtagwa fight without uttering the phrase ‘too tough for his own good’. The 30 year-old enters with a good mix of experience and world class opposition, and he throws enough punches to keep him in any fight. Mtagwa’s greatest asset is stamina combined with the ability to absorb punishment long enough to find holes in an opponent’s defense, or to simply outlast foes in a battle of attrition. Does not have a big punch, but his arms are always in motion pumping out quick punches to the arms, body, and head. Is physically stronger than his body suggests and likes to get inside, causing his share of headbutts, pushing and mauling as much as the referee will allow. Found the perfect US city to base himself out of (Philadelphia), where his fervent action style has made him a fan favorite. If Mtagwa is to have a chance against Gamboa he must land his best punch, a solid right hand, early and often.

Yuriorkis Gamboa – Most boxing fans are aware of Gamboa’s story - a superbly talented Cuban amateur (2004 Olympic Gold medalist at flyweight, final record of 122-19-3) who escaped the communist island to be fast tracked to a world title with the aid of American television. Which is not a bad thing because Gamboa’s skills and physical abilities demand rapid acceleration against elite opposition. To look at Gamboa, physically and in style, he is reminiscent of Meldrick Taylor, but with more power and slightly less fluidity in his combinations. The Taylor comparison is also apt because he gets wrapped up in exchanges that his speed and skills could avoid, and he can almost seemed bored by his opposition at times. Consequently, Gamboa has been put on the canvas four times (three times it was a case of bad balance), against three opponents, but rebounded each time to win his fight and never looked in danger of actually losing. Speed, power, reflexes, boxing skills - Gamboa has them all, but so far has failed to combine all four on a consistent basis. In an odd sense this makes fans and the television want more of him, to see what an awesome he could be when he puts everything together for the first time. He seems like Zab Judah in this sense, always dangerous but never fully focused. To this point the competition has allowed him to get away with having just two of the four components in place. I fear it would not be enough against someone the caliber of a champion like Chris John.

Result – When does Mtagwa’s all out style catch up to him? Given Gamboa’s speed and physical strength this is where it will come to forefront, if indeed Mtagwa has too many miles on his odometer. I hope Mtagwa’s corner monitors him closely, and that they do not look past the obvious waiting for him to wear down Gamboa as he did Juan Manuel Lopez. One of the reasons I do not think that will happen is because this fight is at featherweight, not jr. feather as the Lopez fight was, and that Gamboa is a naturally stronger man and uses his body more than Lopez. I know Mtagwa has a way of luring opponents in and fighting his fight as the rounds wear on, but believe Gamboa has the intellect and experience to fight his fight and not get drawn into trench warfare. Gamboa uses his speed and feet to score a victory, and maybe score a late round stoppage if the referee is merciful.

Juan Manuel Lopez – I am not used to featuring Lopez in the challenger spot. He made five defenses of his jr. featherweight title, but let’s not forget that Lopez struggled in his last fight against awkward Rogers Mtagwa. As a champion the Puerto Rican quickly rounded into one of the best fighters below 130 pounds, and is a threat to enter the P4P rankings with a win tonight. Averages four rounds a fight, and enters the bout with an impressive 89% kayo ratio. This southpaw might just be a prodigious talent. Destroyed the sturdy Daniel Ponce De Leon to win one title, and always had the look and feel of a sure-fire champion from the start to me. Level of progression is reminiscent of Miguel Cotto. The 5’7 southpaw is a former Olympian, and has taken apart a variety of styles slung at him by prospects, veterans, former title challengers, and men he made into former champions. A blend of speed and size is maximized by intelligent ring movement, and we will see if Lopez’s power will travel up with him in weight today. This will sound blasphemous to some, but I think Lopez could be the most destructive Puerto Rican fighter since Wilfredo Gomez...., and that includes Felix Trinidad. We know he did not match the 13 title defenses of Gomez (all by kayo), but the 26 year old had a chance if he could have maintained the weight. Lopez could be everything that the Puerto Rican people expected Miguel Cotto to be. Many think Lopez did not look great against Mtagwa because of problems making weight, which I suspect as well, but that excuse cannot be used against Luevano. Overall Lopez beat a good caliber of opposition as jr. featherweight champion, but is looking for a career defining fight at featherweight.

Steven Luevano – This L.A southpaw has matured into a well rounded boxer, eight of his last ten fights have gone the distance, who enjoys observing opponents early before picking them apart with smart combinations and counter attacks. Luevano employs superior movement to unbalance opponents, and excellent handspeed allows ample advantages laying out a wide array of punches. As solid as Luevano is, he does not look a dominant force despite obvious skills. Maybe he simply lacks intensity, which reveals itself in a lack of stoppages (15 in 39 fights). Luevano has looked susceptible to pressure fighters in the past, who can score in they remain in his chest mostly because he lacks upper body strength or a momentum halting jab. At 28 Luevano is not going to get stronger, but he has improved himself on the stamina front and his boxing skills make up for other deficits. His stretch runs have gotten better since his lone loss to Martin Honorio in 2005, and five title defenses have no doubt build his confidence. I have a fondness for American fighters who win their title on the road (as Luevano did against Nicky Cook in England), since so few have to endure such ultimately rewarding travails. Luevano is carving out a nice resume, and a win over Lopez would put him into a position to call for a unification bout against Chris John on HBO.

Result – Luevano is an underdog champion in this match-up, with most liking Lopez early and Luevano late…, if at all. I agree that Luevano will have to find his way into the fight, and that his best moments will come late after he has a chance to time and gauge Lopez’s strengths. I doubt Luevano has the wherewithal to deal with Lopez’s combination of speed, experience, and power. If Luevano can counter Lopez while moving laterally he has a chance, but because Luevano does not have a lot of power he will not enjoy the advantages of a champion defending against a challenger moving up in weight should. Lopez’s timing and speed, on offense and defense, will simply be too much for Luevano to compute. I like Lopez by seventh or eighth round kayo.

2010 prediction record to date: 3-0