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Big Fight, Big Business, But Will it be a Big Bust?
By Steve Kim (April 30, 2007)

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You may have noticed that a certain fight is coming up this weekend in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand. They're calling it 'the World Awaits', some little bout between Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather. You may have heard about it the past few months.

"Well, out here in Southern California, nobody cares about it at all," says HBO's Larry Merchant, who will be ringside, "except you walk out the door and the dog is asking you who's going to win the fight."

Merchant, often gauges the interest of a big fight by how often he is stopped in his everyday life by the general public inquiring about the event.

"I've never experienced anything like this that I can remember," said Merchant. "That from the moment the fight was signed, people were saying, 'Who's going to win this fight?' and you were supposed to know. And we’re talking five, six months ago. And it's steadily increased. I've been in Hawaii, I've been in Puerto Rico, I've been all over. 'Who's going to win the fight?'"

Some who are around this event are trying to call it the biggest, most robust promotion in the history of the sport, surpassing 'the Fight of the Century' between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier on March 8th, 1971 and the first encounter between Sugar Ray Leonard and Thomas Hearns on September 16, 1981. Based on what Merchant just said, does he believe this fight is on that level?

"No, because boxing was a bigger part of the sports scene in those days," he answers. "I'm just saying in my time since I'm recognized because of how long I've been on television - y'know the fireman, the doorman, the bagger, they recognize and ask me."

One thing this bout has done is captured the interest of the general public which now generally shuns boxing.

"People who I didn't even know or even cared about boxing will pipe up and ask me," says Merchant of what will be his last big event he will cover for HBO Sports. "I went out and hit with some teenage kid in tennis just yesterday - and he looked like a kid right out of the X-Games - and he asked me about the fight. But it's not to the dimensions that the huge fights were in the old days."

But make no doubt about it, this fight is as big as they can get in this day and age. It's appropriate that the last leg of the multi-city press tour that took place a few months ago concluded at the Mann's Chinese Theater in Hollywood because this even could do some 'Titanic' numbers with two of boxing's leading men.

"The highest single-day box-office in Hollywood history was 'Pirates of the Caribbean', it did $55.8 million on July 7th, 2006. And the second highest was Star Wars Episode III, it did about $50 million. So $50-55 million is the biggest night in the history of Hollywood. The biggest opening weekend, which is Friday through Sunday, was 'Pirates of the Carribean', which did about $135 million on the opening weekend. Clearly, the De La Hoya-Mayweather fight is going to generate more revenue on May 5th than the highest single day box-office gross of any move in Hollywood history. If you add in the site revenue that's generated that night in the United States, if De La Hoya-Mayweather does the same number of pay-per-view buys as Lewis-Tyson (1.98 million) it will generate more revenue in one night than the biggest opening weekend in history," explained Mark Taffet, Sr. V.P. of Sports Operations and Pay-Per-View for HBO Sports.

De La Hoya is very close to becoming the all-time pay-per-view king. If this event does just a little bit more than the same number of buys as his fight against Ricardo Mayorga did (approximately 935,000), 'the Golden Boy' will become the all-time highest grossing attraction in pay-per-view history. His 17 pay-per-view events have garnered nearly 10.5 million buys, generating $492 million. Evander Holyfield's 14 pay-per-views have had around 12.6 million subscribers and totaled $550 million. And Mike Tyson's 12 outings on pay-per-view have had around 12.4 million buys and $550 million. Oscar may have already exceeded these two heavyweights had his 1996 encounter against Julio Cesar Chavez been on pay-per-view and not on closed-circuit.

The Lewis-Tyson event in 2002 is the all-time leading grosser in pay-per-view history, but De La Hoya's bout versus Felix Trinidad in September of 1999 is the all-time non-heavyweight pay-per-view telecast with 1.4 million buys that generated $71.4 million. It's almost a foregone conclusion that this Saturday’s bout will surpass that figure.

'The World Awaits' will also have an unprecedented amount of closed-circuit outlets.

Oh, and if you hadn't heard, the $19 million procured at the box-office by the MGM Grand is a Nevada state record for a boxing event. Tickets, the few that were actually available to the general public, went in less than three hours. And the secondary market for these tickets is soaring. According to ticketsnow.com, the average price for tickets-sold this fight (at $1,652) ranks second only behind the 2007 Super Bowl, which had an average of $3,820. The 2007 Kentucky Derby comes in a different third at $830.

Ticketsnow.com says they have around 730 available tickets ranging from $1,105 to $22,425 for ringside seats.

So there's no doubt, this is not just a big fight, but one of the biggest events in all of sports for 2007. It will get the type of coverage from the general media that it rarely gets anymore. Both De La Hoya and Mayweather will be making career-high paydays when all the numbers are added up.

But with that comes some extra added responsibility. Boxing - and these two boxers - must put their best foot (or is it fists?) forward when the whole world is watching. For all the hype that De La Hoya-Trinidad received, and the money it made, with its two leading men on the marquee, boxing got it's version of 'Ishtar'. Here, we can't have 'Waterworld' or 'Alexander'.

No, it's not that this event will lose money - in fact, it will probably make an unprecedented amount of it - but being perhaps one of the last true mega-events boxing might have, it's critical that both participants put on a good show. We already know that this will be a financial winner for everyone involved. But the game of boxing needs a critical smash, one that will bring at least some of the general public back to the big top that is boxing; something that will be the impetus for newspaper editors and television heads to give boxing another look.

It's ironic that this fight takes place on the same day as the Kentucky Derby. Because horse racing, which is truly a dying sport, much more than boxing, has always depended on this event to carry it's flag with the hope that a Triple Crown winner will eventually be hatched from it. And when a 'Smarty Jones' or 'Barbaro' either fades down the stretch in the Belmont or suffers an even worse fate, the interest in horse racing goes back to being non-existent till the next May.

It wouldn't be totally out of line to call Mayweather-De La Hoya boxing's Kentucky Derby. HBO and Golden Boy Promotions has seemingly put all their eggs into this basket, going to unprecedented lengths to market this event. But while they've thought about 'the World Awaits' 24/7, on May 6th the business of boxing still has to come to a realization that it's current landscape could be devoid of it's one true superstar in the States (if De La Hoya is defeated as most expect), ticket demand for most other bouts is a
misnomer, no other pay-per-view events this year may crack the half-million mark and HBO's ratings for boxing are at an all-time low.

If boxing were New Orleans, this bout is the rebuilding of the Superdome and the resurgence of their Saints, a heartwarming story, in itself. But the reality is that most of that region still needs to be rebuilt and rehabilitated. And many have left, and aren't coming back anytime soon.

De La Hoya's has provided boxing fans with some memorable moments like his grudge match victory over arch-nemesis Fernando Vargas in 2002, and his thrilling close-out of Ike Quartey in 1999. But some have still never forgiven him – or will - for his Dean Smith-like four corners offense against Trinidad or what some consider a questionable stoppage at the hands of a Bernard Hopkins left hook a few years back.

Mayweather, for all his supposed brilliance, is more likely to make patrons leave early (just ask Charles Barkley and Tiger Woods) than have them on their feet applauding. In his gradual moves up in weight, he has become an increasingly cautious and safe prizefighter.

Bottom line, neither has ever come close to being involved in a 'fight of the year'. On May 5th, I hope we don't get 'Dancing with the Stars', as they laugh all the way to the bank.

I've already seen that with Mario Lopez and Emmit Smith.

ESPN THE MAG

There's no doubt this is a big one, as even ESPN the Mag, which does very little boxing, has put Mayweather on the cover (he's the first boxer I can recall on the magazine's front, and I've subscribed from the very first issue in 1998) and devoted three separate articles inside to the fight, including one from 'the Sports Guy' Bill Simmons, who is a life-long boxing devotee.

The piece on Mayweather is done by Tim Keown. It's a good article, but one exception I do take to it is that he accuses Larry Merchant of predicting that Mayweather would get his 'comeuppance' against Carlos Baldomir last November and instead of complimenting
'the Pretty Boy' he refused to give him his due credit. He accused him of doing the John Kerry and 'flip-flopping'.

Well, I can tell you from experience that Merchant under no circumstance ever gives a prediction on a fight he will be covering. Trust me, I've tried to pry it out of him before, and it can't be done. In fact, he'd rather have dinner with Mayweather himself, than to do that.

In fact, like myself, he felt Baldomir, was just an easy, hand-picked opponent that was built to order.

But he never gave a prediction on the fight.

BIG ONE INDEED

Like Merchant, those who know what I do ask me in unison about the fight coming up. Folks who never ask me anything related to my job, will ask what I think about De La Hoya-Mayweather.

At the place where I get my hair cut, the female employees ask. And they tell me that they will be ordering 'the game' on pay-per-view. I was at the optometrist this past Friday to get new contacts and when I brought up the fact I was going to Las Vegas this weekend, everyone asked, 'Oh, are you going to the fight?'

The doctor who fitted me for my lenses, a lady, said she was going to Vegas with her husband and that they would be looking for a place to watch the fight.

I guess it's big.

MISSING LARRY ALREADY

OK, if Max Kellerman is going back to the whole thing of the 'REAL champion' like he did in badgering Juan Diaz about a fight with Joel Casamayor, then I'm missing Merchant even more than I thought I would.

First of all, didn't Casamayor gain that 'REAL' distinction by defeating an over-the-weight Corrales? Also, Casamayor, according to good sources, not only priced himself out of fights with Acelino Freitas, but Juan Diaz (in a bout Showtime wanted badly), which is why he got stripped of his WBC belt and is now fighting off-TV in his next appearance.

I hope when Max hits the big stage, he starts to do his homework instead of just blindly pushing his agendas. There's more to this gig than just showing up and giving his opinions.

VIVA DIAZ

I know there will still be those who won't give any credit to Juan Diaz, but this young man (he's no longer a kid) is a tough out for anybody that gets in there with him, as Acelino Freitas found out. 'Popo' had just about every physical advantage going in, except youth, but he was just overwhelmed by the consistency and workrate of 'the Baby Bull'.

Manager Willie Savannah has done a masterful job of not allowing anyone to rush his fighter. At age 23, he seems fully prepared to tussle with anyone in the lightweight division. Diaz, to me, is a lot like Rocky Marciano - and no, I am not saying he's as good or will have that type of standing in the history books - but he's one of those fighters when you dissect him, he seems so beatable and vulnerable. He doesn't hit that hard because he doesn't turn over his punches fully, he's seems a bit soft in the body and he can get squared up defensively. Now, in theory, a guy like this should be easy to exploit. Until you actually get in there with him and he's all over you for three minutes at a time, not letting you relax.

I said it last November, and I'll say it again, I'd pay to see a bout between him and Manny Pacquiao at a catch-weight of 132.5 pounds in the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. I think that could do 30,000-plus in terms of attendance.

POPO

What I find most objectionable about Saturday night at Foxwoods is not so much Freitas, or his corner, calling it a day. What really irked me was his cornermen hoisting him up on their shoulders as if he was some conquering hero, taking a victory lap.

Gimme a break. That type of stuff should be reserved for guy who fights on and show resiliency in the heat of battle.

Seriously, how would they have treated him if he would have actually won the fight. Treat him to a magic carpet ride?

FINAL FLURRIES

Jason Litzau hasn't plateaued or stagnated in his development. He's actually gone backwards....I thought Antonio Johnson was the best looking fighter from Minnesota on that ESPN2 show last Wednesday.... The June 1st edition of ShoBox will feature jr. middleweight prospect James Kirkland facing Ossie Duran, and jr. welterweight hopeful Timothy Bradley taking on Donald Camarena....Carl Moretti can breathe easy, Brady Quinn finally got drafted.... I'll say it right now, Ted Ginn will be a bust for the Miami Dolphins... My first-day NFL Draft sleeper is Arizona running back Chris Henry, who went in the second round to Tennessee....Miami had three first-round draft picks. Seriously, did anyone get less out of more than Larry Coker?.... Speaking of which, blue-chip fighters seem to go downhill once they hook up with Oscar Suarez, don't they?....I wouldn't mind seeing a welterweight fight in the near future between Henry Crawford and Jesus Soto-Karass...Miguel Garcia, the younger brother of former IBF jr. lightweight champion, Robert, looked like a prospect to watch out for on Telefutura....For those of you who care, I have an article on canesoverhere.com on Randy Shannon.....